The new GFS is out to 90 hours now, and it looks to have shifted quite a bit to the left. It has it crossing central Cuba. We'll have to see if this is the beginning of a model trend, in which case, I still feel the GFS is still too far to the right. This has the potential to affect not only the Gulf Coast/SE US, but could eventually continue north to areas that have seen enough rain to last the rest of the year and then some. Where I am in NJ, we had almost 7 inches last month, and 10 miles north of me, there was the 13" event over several hours a couple of months ago. My area got less than 2" that day. The problem is, the wetter it is, the less wind it takes to knock trees down. Even if this were to affect an area like Virginia, still as a tropical storm, I would bet that the wind damage would be equivalent to a stronger system. First things first, no one knows where it will make landfall. My guess is still in the eastern GOM. If it does go over central Cuba, it would be harder for it to recover. Not that you want it to hit anywhere, but I think Fla. has had enough to last a long time.
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