Steve posted this in the previous thread, so I'm reposting it here for all to see:
I think that which is off of Tampa is the remains of an old frontal boundary. It doesn't look like the setup is there for anything to happen. ------------------------------------------------ Thanks to everyone for your kind words. ------------------------------------------------ Phil, you have to go to the "visible floater" because the East just shows the Gulf (or at least on my system that's all it did). ----------------------------------------------- The 5pm track is about what I expected from the TPC. They've nudged it west and made it look like a Big Bend threat. Most of the models are showing a due north motion, but I don't see it as pronounced as they do. While Ivan is moving at 300 degrees (10 degrees slightly closer to WNW than NW), it's going to have to edge up farther for them to hit the current track. I'd expect them to continue to nudge it gradually over the next few days. I also like one aspect of their 5 day which still shows the system over water. Tuesday IMHO is the earliest landfall time. It's probably going to be Wed. ------------------------------------------------ Bobbi,
Check out the High Res SST's . The coldest water in the Gulf is nearly 82 degrees, so there is plenty of support. Currently, the eastern and western Gulf have the most potential (as seen by the oranges on the map link).
Steve
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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