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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

scottsvb1
Unregistered

Re: Model Shift
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:38 AM

Hi colleen.....you been doing a great job here. I been watching your posts.
Anyways to give ya a inside view, we here in florida really need to get ready for this.3rd time might be the biggie for west central florida. The models (even though some have went to the right, GFS now is more left with the rest outside of the nogaps. I think the Nogaps is now the outliner. I dont see Ivan getting past 85w, infact maybe not even 84w. I wont give out a landfall area until Friday afternoon or night but will say this ;we are going to get at the least Frances type winds Monday evening into Tuesday night at the least. Hurricane force is hard to pinpoint. To me, if i had to throw out a guess( which of course isnt my forcast yet) would be 2 scenerios. 1 A path from near Keywest or just west of there, moving NNE up around Naples area -Monday evening- thru center of the state and out just south of Daytona and making a 2nd landfall in south caronlina on Weds night. 2nd is still just around Key west or just west of there and moving N to near 27N and 83.5W and then turning more NNE or NE and moving inland around the Pasco-citrus county area on Tuesday morning, exiting around St Augustine-Jacksonville area and threatning the S Caronlina coast on Weds night (abouts). The models of the last 5-6 runs have moved left and right but generally come better together thru Monday somwhere around the west coast of florida. Worst case scenerio is the 2nd 1 for you and tampabay. Also yes it could be between the 2 solutions. There is still a smal chance of going up near Panama city and smaller of a glancing blow to the Keys and Miami and up through Grand Bahama......well I have about 18 hours or so to put out my 3 day landfall forcast. This was just a insight.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit	MikeC	Fri Sep 10 2004 06:38 AM
Thanks	Sadie	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:17 AM
Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit	captgene	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:26 AM
Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit	captgene	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:54 AM
Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit/where this crap going?	slwfreez	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:03 AM
Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit	Bioman	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:29 AM
Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit	BeachBum	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:49 AM
Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit	Bioman	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:22 AM
Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit	kelcot	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:57 AM
Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit	kelcot	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:33 AM
Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit	okiherdu	Thu Sep 09 2004 11:17 PM
Map update	SkeetoBite	Thu Sep 09 2004 09:36 PM
Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit	Clark	Thu Sep 09 2004 09:11 PM
For what it's worth...	Clark	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:14 AM
Re: For what it's worth...	Rasvar	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:24 AM
Re: For what it's worth...	wezman1	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:28 AM
Re: For what it's worth...	MrSpock	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:34 AM
Re: For what it's worth...	Clark	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:29 AM
Supplies in Manatee County Gone	Bev	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:39 AM
Re: Supplies in Manatee County Gone	Clark	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:50 AM
Re: Supplies in Manatee County Gone	robynsmom	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:16 AM
Re: Supplies in Manatee County Gone	kelcot	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:58 AM
Hmmmm	StormHound	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:08 AM
Re: Hmmmm	Clark	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:22 AM
Re: Hmmmm	Rasvar	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:41 AM
Re: Hmmmm	BillD	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:47 AM
Re: Hmmmm	scottsvb1	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:44 AM
Scottsvb	StormHound	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:06 AM
Re: Scottsvb	StormHound	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:09 AM
Re: Hmmmm	BillD	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:52 AM
Re: Hmmmm	MikeC	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:55 AM
S.E. Fla in the clear based upon Spagetti?	MIAMIFL	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:51 AM
Re: S.E. Fla in the clear based upon Spagetti?	Clark	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:06 AM
Re: S.E. Fla in the clear based upon Spagetti?	MikeC	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:15 AM
Maps	SkeetoBite	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:22 AM
Re: Maps	Bev	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:12 AM
Re: Maps	rule	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:42 AM
Re: Maps	belleami	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:53 AM
Re: Maps	Bev	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:05 AM
Re: Lived in Florida	BeachBum	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:12 AM
Re: Maps	Terry Johnson	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:59 AM
Re: Maps	Wxwatcher2	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:34 AM
Re: Maps	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:23 AM
Re: Maps	SirCane	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:36 AM
Re: Maps	mud1967	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:00 AM
Re: Maps	ewilby	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:24 AM
Re: Maps	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:08 AM
Re: Maps	mud1967	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:21 AM
Re: Maps	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:43 AM
Re: Maps	mud1967	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:56 AM
Re: Maps	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 10 2004 06:08 AM
Tampa Bay Area - Flood Waters	Bev	Fri Sep 10 2004 06:02 AM
Re: Maps	scottsvb1	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:44 AM
Re: Maps	meto	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:44 AM
Re: The Layout	javlin	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:06 AM
Re: The Layout	SirCane	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:18 AM
Re: Accu wx	javlin	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:33 AM
Re: Maps	SirCane	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:27 AM
Re: Maps	juniorgirl	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:52 AM
Re: Maps	scottsvb1	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:29 AM
Re: Maps	sullynole	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:33 AM
Tired of hurricanes...	Clark	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:09 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	mud1967	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:17 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	Clark	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:21 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	mud1967	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:48 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	andy1tom	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:50 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	Wxwatcher2	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:26 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	BillD	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:31 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	Clark	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:19 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	andy1tom	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:24 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	wxman007	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:35 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	andy1tom	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:42 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	Kimster	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:41 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	wxman007	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:54 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	mud1967	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:09 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	ewilby	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:34 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:49 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	Sissy	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:52 AM
Model Shift	Bev	Fri Sep 10 2004 06:12 AM
Re: Model Shift	scottsvb1	Fri Sep 10 2004 06:38 AM
I need to go back to bed	Rasvar	Fri Sep 10 2004 11:30 AM
Re: I need to go back to bed	recmod	Fri Sep 10 2004 11:34 AM
Re: I need to go back to bed	GuppieGrouper	Fri Sep 10 2004 11:41 AM
Re: I need to go back to bed	Rasvar	Fri Sep 10 2004 11:51 AM
Wind Field Maps	Justin in Miami	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:25 PM
Re: Model Shift seems in agreement	bobbi	Fri Sep 10 2004 11:30 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	Wxwatcher2	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:58 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	mud1967	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:48 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	Wxwatcher2	Fri Sep 10 2004 05:59 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	BillD	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:27 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	belleami	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:33 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	scottsvb1	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:35 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	Wxwatcher2	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:36 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	jaybythebay	Fri Sep 10 2004 03:19 AM
Re: Tired of hurricanes...	mud1967	Fri Sep 10 2004 04:08 AM
Re: S.E. Fla in the clear based upon Spagetti?	BillD	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:58 AM
Re: S.E. Fla in the clear based upon Spagetti?	scottsvb1	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:53 AM
Re: S.E. Fla in the clear based upon Spagetti?	scottsvb1	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:56 AM
Re: Hmmmm	StormHound	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:40 AM
Re: Hmmmm	rule	Fri Sep 10 2004 02:15 AM
Re: Ivan possible postponements	Jeffmidtown	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:49 AM
Re: Supplies in Manatee County Gone	Rasvar	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:46 AM
Re: For what it's worth...	Martha	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:36 AM
Ever so slightly shifting west.... is this a trend?	Frank P	Thu Sep 09 2004 09:09 PM
Re: Ever so slightly shifting west.... is this a trend?	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 09 2004 09:18 PM
GFS Model	VolusiaMike	Thu Sep 09 2004 09:35 PM
Re: GFS Model	MrSpock	Thu Sep 09 2004 09:47 PM
Girls Lie too....	Frank P	Thu Sep 09 2004 09:35 PM
Re: Girls Lie too....	MrSpock	Thu Sep 09 2004 09:46 PM
Re: Girls Lie too....	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 09 2004 09:57 PM
Re: Girls Lie too....	MrSpock	Thu Sep 09 2004 09:59 PM
Latest Vortex	recmod	Thu Sep 09 2004 10:53 PM
Re: Latest Vortex	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 09 2004 11:24 PM
This was interesting	belleami	Thu Sep 09 2004 11:34 PM
Re: This was interesting	DroopGB31	Thu Sep 09 2004 11:51 PM
Re: This was interesting	kelcot	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:00 AM
Re: This was interesting	Heather	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:06 AM
Re: This was interesting	BillD	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:28 AM
Re: This was interesting	Kevin	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:34 AM
Re: This was interesting	Heather	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:41 AM
Re: This was interesting	Terra	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:50 AM
Re: This was interesting	kelcot	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:04 AM
Re: This was interesting	HadItinOrlando	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:08 AM
Re: This was interesting	kelcot	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:21 AM
Re: This was interesting	kelcot	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:11 AM
Here's your 8PM intermediate advisory...	Kevin	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:05 AM
Re: Here's your 8PM intermediate advisory...	Kimster	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:16 AM
Re: Here's your 8PM intermediate advisory...	MrSpock	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:08 AM
Vortex translation	Frank P	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:13 AM
Models	Jamiewx	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:17 AM
Re: Models	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:04 AM
Re: Models	meto	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:28 AM
Re: Vortex translation	MrSpock	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:17 AM
Re: Vortex translation	Rasvar	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:41 AM
Re: Vortex translation	Frank P	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:31 AM
Re: Vortex translation	MrSpock	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:40 AM
Re: Vortex translation	BillD	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:54 AM
Models	Wxwatcher2	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:04 AM
Re: Models	wxman007	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:08 AM
Re: Models	andy1tom	Fri Sep 10 2004 01:39 AM
Re: Vortex translation	rd522525	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:38 AM
Re: Vortex translation	Kevin	Fri Sep 10 2004 12:28 AM
Re: Latest Vortex	Wxwatcher2	Thu Sep 09 2004 11:32 PM
Grenada, Frances, Apprentice, RUReady for...	LI Phil	Thu Sep 09 2004 11:23 PM
Re: Grenada, Frances, Apprentice, RUReady for...	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 09 2004 11:43 PM
Re: Grenada, Frances, Apprentice, RUReady for...	trinibaje	Thu Sep 09 2004 11:32 PM
Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit	LI Phil	Thu Sep 09 2004 09:05 PM
Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit	LI Phil	Thu Sep 09 2004 09:07 PM
thanks for all the excellent discussion	the gulf	Thu Sep 09 2004 09:55 PM
Thoughts....	wxman007	Thu Sep 09 2004 09:14 PM
Re: Ivan with Double Eyewalls? Weakens a bit	Steve	Thu Sep 09 2004 09:12 PM

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