Hi colleen.....you been doing a great job here. I been watching your posts. Anyways to give ya a inside view, we here in florida really need to get ready for this.3rd time might be the biggie for west central florida. The models (even though some have went to the right, GFS now is more left with the rest outside of the nogaps. I think the Nogaps is now the outliner. I dont see Ivan getting past 85w, infact maybe not even 84w. I wont give out a landfall area until Friday afternoon or night but will say this ;we are going to get at the least Frances type winds Monday evening into Tuesday night at the least. Hurricane force is hard to pinpoint. To me, if i had to throw out a guess( which of course isnt my forcast yet) would be 2 scenerios. 1 A path from near Keywest or just west of there, moving NNE up around Naples area -Monday evening- thru center of the state and out just south of Daytona and making a 2nd landfall in south caronlina on Weds night. 2nd is still just around Key west or just west of there and moving N to near 27N and 83.5W and then turning more NNE or NE and moving inland around the Pasco-citrus county area on Tuesday morning, exiting around St Augustine-Jacksonville area and threatning the S Caronlina coast on Weds night (abouts). The models of the last 5-6 runs have moved left and right but generally come better together thru Monday somwhere around the west coast of florida. Worst case scenerio is the 2nd 1 for you and tampabay. Also yes it could be between the 2 solutions. There is still a smal chance of going up near Panama city and smaller of a glancing blow to the Keys and Miami and up through Grand Bahama......well I have about 18 hours or so to put out my 3 day landfall forcast. This was just a insight.
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