No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any
21 (Milton)
, Major:
21 (Milton)
Florida - Any: 21 (Milton)
Major:
21 (Milton)
The local met in New Orleans just posted this on one of the New Orleans boards Could be better news for peninsula FL? (I sure hope so)
BTW -- I cant seem to login -- not sure whats up
NEW INFORMATION - The FSU Super Ensemble Model Trends WEST.
Contacts tell me the FSU S.E. model (probably the best model out there) has trended west with the 7pm run from last night, now showing a landfall west of Pensacola, FL. It seems to be picking up on a ridge which is decaying less than what was previously thought. This means the panhandle is certainly still under the gun.
As stated in my previous discussion below, for this thing to do what the models are saying and go up FL proper, a bunch of variables will have to come together just right and the uncertainty remains pretty high that will happen, imo. NHC has their track right on top of the GFDL model now.
Based on this new information about the S.E. model, and my gut feelings all along, I feel as though this track may be too far east. Look for a possible shift in the track eventually if the FSU S.E. continues this trend.
What does this mean for us? Well, it means we are certainly not out of the woods altogether, nor have we been. However, *nothing* I have seen even suggests it will make it this far west and there is new model evidence to suggest that may be difficult. Like David said, the models are a little stronger on this little mini trough coming our way which would tend to keep Ivan away from us. But anywhere along the FL panhandle to Miami appears to be the highest risk at this point, with perhaps the risk increasing for the FL panhandle.
Even though it looks like a strike somewhere in FL is the best bet, there's still the posibility it could come far enough west to get everyone around here nervous.
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