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Invest 95L near 100% chance to develop, advisories likely to come later today. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Watches are possible later tonight for parts of the Windward islands of the Caribbean. Area east of that 30% chance. 94L 30% chance.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
      Sun Sep 01 2002 06:51 PM

#5. To me, it appears to be more or less stationary possibly heading slightly NW. I base this off of the Goes-8 Vis and IR (last 15 and 30 frames respectively. Apparently the convection was bulging west, warmed up, fired up again, now warming again.

So where does it go? I don't see it hitting Florida at this point. It is possible the system could brush the GA/SC Coast or further north in NC as a TS. Some models take it inland and move it west. I don't really see that right now, though 4-5 days down the road, anything could happen (big trof supposed to come down in 72 hours). #5 could just head on NE after stalling and become a fish spinner or a possible threat to Bermuda. #5 could also get stuck as per GFDL.

I'll be watching the Gulf as originally planned tomorrow thru Thursday. Some of the models have backed off on development in the Gulf, favoring generally lower pressure throughout the Gulf instead of tied to a closed system. I haven't checked out the long-range ETA yet. Eta has been most aggressive. For down the line, MRF puts stock in a fairly strong system off the FL SE Coast in 9 days. I doubt anything long-range from the MRF/GFS but I ran across it and figured it was worth noting.

Also worth noting, I just ran a check by Accuweather and JB is putting the Texas GC on notice with something like, "If I was on the TX Coast, I'd keep an eye open." I've had mine opened and focused.

"...with my good eye closed." - Soundgarden

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona CFHCAdministrator Sun Sep 01 2002 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Anonymous   Mon Sep 02 2002 01:12 PM
. * * Bastardi even sounds uncertain. Kevin   Mon Sep 02 2002 01:22 PM
. * * Tony,Tony,Tony ShawnS   Mon Sep 02 2002 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Tony,Tony,Tony Steve   Mon Sep 02 2002 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Tony,Tony,Tony Tony   Mon Sep 02 2002 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Tony,Tony,Tony Steve   Mon Sep 02 2002 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Anonymous   Sun Sep 01 2002 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Colleen A.   Sun Sep 01 2002 08:51 PM
. * * td 5/next systems Anonymous (HF)   Sun Sep 01 2002 09:14 PM
. * * Edouard Develops!!!!!!! Jason M   Mon Sep 02 2002 02:12 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Steve   Sun Sep 01 2002 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Frank P   Sun Sep 01 2002 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Anonymous   Sun Sep 01 2002 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona k___g   Sun Sep 01 2002 09:06 PM
. * * GOM....Could there be? ShawnS   Sun Sep 01 2002 08:45 PM
. * * Re: GOM....Could there be? Jason M   Sun Sep 01 2002 08:49 PM
. * * Re: GOM....Could there be? Anonymous   Mon Sep 02 2002 07:29 AM
. * * E storm Anonymous   Mon Sep 02 2002 07:34 AM
. * * Re: E storm Cycloneye   Mon Sep 02 2002 08:01 AM
. * * Re: E storm Frank P   Mon Sep 02 2002 10:10 AM
. * * TWC and Local News GaryC   Mon Sep 02 2002 10:42 AM
. * * Re: E storm Frank P   Mon Sep 02 2002 10:26 AM
. * * Re: E storm from fernandina   Mon Sep 02 2002 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Chad   Sun Sep 01 2002 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona garyb   Mon Sep 02 2002 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Mary K.   Mon Sep 02 2002 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona troy2   Mon Sep 02 2002 02:12 PM
. * * Gulf beginning to brew? Steve   Mon Sep 02 2002 02:15 PM
. * * Re: pressure drop troy2   Mon Sep 02 2002 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Gulf beginning to brew? troy2   Mon Sep 02 2002 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Gulf beginning to brew? Anonymous   Mon Sep 02 2002 04:39 PM
. * * New GDFL Alan   Mon Sep 02 2002 03:51 PM
. * * Re: New GDFL Mary K.   Mon Sep 02 2002 04:05 PM
. * * Re: New GDFL Steve   Mon Sep 02 2002 04:33 PM
. * * Re: New GDFL Joe   Mon Sep 02 2002 04:42 PM
. * * Edouard's movement and what it may mean for future intensity. Kevin   Mon Sep 02 2002 04:52 PM
. * * NWS Melbourne discussion Kevin   Mon Sep 02 2002 04:56 PM
. * * Hey Shawn, Steve   Mon Sep 02 2002 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Hey Shawn, Anonymous   Mon Sep 02 2002 05:42 PM
. * * Barry... Steve   Mon Sep 02 2002 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Gulf beginning to brew? troy2   Mon Sep 02 2002 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Gulf beginning to brew? troy2   Mon Sep 02 2002 02:19 PM
. * * Hey Shawn Frank P   Mon Sep 02 2002 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Hey Shawn StormHound   Mon Sep 02 2002 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Hey Shawn Joe   Mon Sep 02 2002 03:26 PM
. * * Hey k_______g Steve   Mon Sep 02 2002 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona k___g   Mon Sep 02 2002 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona from fernadina   Mon Sep 02 2002 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona 57497479   Mon Sep 02 2002 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Bruce   Mon Sep 02 2002 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona 57497479   Mon Sep 02 2002 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Joe   Mon Sep 02 2002 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Bruce   Mon Sep 02 2002 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Bruce   Mon Sep 02 2002 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Tony   Mon Sep 02 2002 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona troy2   Mon Sep 02 2002 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Mary K.   Mon Sep 02 2002 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Tony   Mon Sep 02 2002 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona troy2   Mon Sep 02 2002 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Tony   Mon Sep 02 2002 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona ShawnS   Mon Sep 02 2002 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona troy2   Mon Sep 02 2002 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona troy2   Mon Sep 02 2002 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona troy2   Mon Sep 02 2002 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona garyb   Mon Sep 02 2002 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Frank P   Mon Sep 02 2002 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Frank P   Mon Sep 02 2002 10:51 AM
. * * ROTF Steve   Mon Sep 02 2002 11:38 AM
. * * This is NUTS!!! Kevin   Mon Sep 02 2002 11:27 AM
. * * Re: This is NUTS!!! 57497479   Mon Sep 02 2002 11:38 AM
. * * Dial "911"!!! I think I've got it!!! Dana   Mon Sep 02 2002 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Tony   Mon Sep 02 2002 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Anonymous   Sun Sep 01 2002 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona 57497479   Sun Sep 01 2002 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Colleen A.   Sun Sep 01 2002 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Steve   Sun Sep 01 2002 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Anonymous   Sun Sep 01 2002 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona troy2   Sun Sep 01 2002 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Kevin   Sun Sep 01 2002 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona 57497479   Sun Sep 01 2002 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Colleen A.   Sun Sep 01 2002 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Colleen A.   Sun Sep 01 2002 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona 57497479   Sun Sep 01 2002 04:26 PM
. * * TD #5 WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 01 2002 04:38 PM
. * * Re: TD #5 WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 01 2002 04:42 PM
. * * Re: TD #5 Colleen A.   Sun Sep 01 2002 04:47 PM
. * * Re: TD #5 57497479   Sun Sep 01 2002 05:16 PM
. * * Re: TD #5 Colleen A.   Sun Sep 01 2002 05:59 PM
. * * Re: TD #5 Rich B   Sun Sep 01 2002 05:53 PM
. * * Re: TD #5 BabyCat   Sun Sep 01 2002 06:03 PM
. * * Re: TD #5 Bruce   Sun Sep 01 2002 04:41 PM
. * * Re: TD #5 squirralee   Sun Sep 01 2002 06:16 PM
. * * td 5 Anonymous (HF)   Sun Sep 01 2002 06:48 PM
. * * Re: TD #5 Bruce   Sun Sep 01 2002 04:45 PM
. * * Re: TD #5 Colleen A.   Sun Sep 01 2002 04:48 PM
. * * Re: TD #5 Colleen A.   Sun Sep 01 2002 05:04 PM
. * * Re: TD #5 Bruce   Sun Sep 01 2002 05:03 PM
. * * Re: TD #5 Colleen A.   Sun Sep 01 2002 05:06 PM
. * * Re: TD #5 Colleen A.   Sun Sep 01 2002 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Colleen A.   Sun Sep 01 2002 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona Ricreig   Sun Sep 01 2002 04:23 PM

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