Note the discussion says the center will skirt jamaica's south coast.
Here is some of the NWS Tampa Bay Discussion from this afternoon.
".LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT - FRI)...IN GENERAL...IT'S NOT A MATTER OF WHERE...OR PERHAPS WHEN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE. THE WHERE IS...FOR THE FOURTH TIME THIS SEASON(BONNIE/CHARLEY/FRANCES/IVAN)...THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THE WHEN IS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON WHICH PART OF THE STATE YOU LIVE. HOWEVER...AS WITH CHARLEY...THE EVENTUAL PRECISE TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A GENERAL NORTH HEADING MEANS THE STORM COULD LANDFALL ANYWHERE ON THE PENINSULA WITH JUST A NUDGE.
THE OMINOUS SIGNS POINT TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST ANYWHERE FROM THE KEYS TO THE BIG BEND AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WNW. APPEARS RESTRENGTHENING INNER EASTERN EYEWALL WILL POUND JAMAICA THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER SKIRTS THE ISLAND'S SOUTH COAST...THEN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER...BUT STILL STEADY...MOTION WILL ENSUE AS IT EASES TOWARD THE WESTERN CUBA COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.
AT THAT TIME...WE SHOULD KNOW WHETHER THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE PENINSULA OR PERHAPS IN THE BIG BEND REGION. NOGAPS AND NOGAPS INITIALIZED MODELS SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES LEAN TOWARD THE PENINSULA. BASED ON WATER VAPOR...WHICH SHOWS THE END OF THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE REMNANT TROUGHING FROM FRANCES...AM AFRAID THE STORM WILL CIRCLE THE PERIPHERY AND LAND SOMEWHERE ON THE SUNCOAST BEFORE EDGING NNE.
FOR INTEREST...THIS HAS MANY EARMARKS OF CHARLEY (NOT GOOD) BUT IS LARGER AND MORE ORGANIZED...MEANING IT HAS POTENTIAL TO CREATE A WIDER WIND DAMAGE SWATH AS WELL AS HEAVIER RAINS (WORSE!). ONE POSSIBLE SAVING GRACE IS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY ENCOUNTER SOME SHEAR AS IT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...PERHAPS REDUCING THE CORE WINDS SOMEWHAT. BUT THAT WON'T STOP THE RAIN...WHICH WILL BE THE LONG TERM PROBLEM."
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