The NHC has been saying that it would either hit the eastern edge, or run just barely south of Jamaica for awhile now. Actually, in some ways going just south seems to be worse, since that would make a huge storm surge problem for the whole island. Either way, from the latest Tampa NWS discussion, it would appear it doesn't matter since the ridge appears to have stopped moving west. That seems to be making a panhandle strike more unlikely.
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