Quote: this forecast is tricky and few miles and 1/2 degree of movement will make all the difference. i dont thinkw e will have a better idea until it gets up over cooba. nonetheless it will be a big rain event..this is a very different system than charley even though the track is similiar.
I don't think we'll know landfall until it makes landfall. Charley sure didn't give up his secrets until the very last moment. No reason to think Ivan, coming in on a similar angle will do so. Everyone ought to stay prepared, I don't think we can pinpoint it within 100 miles either direction more than an hour before it lands. At which time it's too late to do anything but take cover.
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