No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any
21 (Milton)
, Major:
21 (Milton)
Florida - Any: 21 (Milton)
Major:
21 (Milton)
Looking at the 1011 am EDT/1411 UTC visible satellite image from NRL Monterrey CAT 4 Ivan's eyewall has collapsed. He is currently experiencing a some unexpected (by me) WSW shearing and is also over a large patch of cooler ocean water. Of course this latest weakening development is a good development for Jamaica. He continues on an approximate WNW heading at 13 mph but I think we "may" see him begin to turn more NW and slow down within 12-18 hours.
This slowing of his forward speed will "possibly" allow Ivan to turn NW-N along 80-81 deg. west longitude instead of 82-83 deg. west longitude. So at this time I'm revising my landfall forecast, something I rarely do!!!
I place a CAT 4 hurricane strike at 50% along the southern coast of Florida between Fort Lauderdale and Naples.
I place a CAT 3-4 hurricane strike at 55% along the gulf coast of Florida between Naples and Tarpon Springs.
I place a CAT 3 hurricane strike at 45% along the gulf coast of Florida between Tarpon Springs and Cedar Key.
I place a CAT 2-3 hurricane strike at 40% in the big bend area between Cedar Key and Panacea.
Thomas F. Giella Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster Plant City, FL
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
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