Based on those links, I would say Ivan would go right into Tampa - Big Bend area. However, they are not going to remain in that state, and there lies the rub. Personally, I'm hoping for a Charley track out of Ivan, but the Eastern trough is going to have to recede.
I pretend I get a lot of information from water vapor loops, but I'm really at a loss this far out as far as making a Florida landfall. I'm going to have to wait for it to cross Cuba before I feel like I can make a guess.
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