Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Tropical Storm Edouard
Mon Sep 02 2002 01:10 PM
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Contrary to conventional wisdom, Edouard is not moving toward the northwest - its actually drifting to the east southeast and has been for most of the night. It is interesting to note what the tropical models do with this storm ( I don't put much faith with the global model projections on this system - Edouard is a small storm and global models usually do not initialize well on small storms). The GFDL moves the system southward a bit, then takes the cyclone across the northern Florida peninsula as a hurricane, and in 5 days has Edouard as a major hurricane (almost stationary) south of Mobile. The Bracknell long range tropical forecast moves the system in a medium-sized anticyclonic loop, never intensifies it too much and finishes with the system about 15 miles southwest of Melbourne as a Depression on Friday. The shorter range tropical model suite take the storm through a similar, but smaller anticyclonic loop and some of them place the system, as a minimal hurricane, about 75 miles northeast of Melbourne in 3 days. Quite a variety of solutions, but a common thread is evident, i.e., weak steering currents which lead to an anticyclonic loop and keep the system as a threat to the GA/FL coast for most (if not all) of the week. Right now I tend to favor the Bracknell solution for general track, but not intensity - if the system does indeed pull further to the southeast, as the ridge rebuilds behind the trough, additional intensification seems likely. One more concern - if the loop ends up being a little tighter and therefore closer to the coast, a heavy rain and flooding threat could easily develop for Atlantic coastal areas of central and north Florida later in the week. We may be busy with this storm for quite a few more days.
Cheers,
ED
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