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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: ivan/little else
      Fri Sep 10 2004 08:05 PM

They were forecasting Ft. Myers early, then Tampa. Actually, they were still forecasting Tampa when Charley made the abrupt turn into Port Charlotte.

I don't listen to just one model, I actually channel hop/surf the net to see what everyone is saying. What I'm trying to figure out is why the majority of the models say one thing, and the official track is something else. It seems that they take the eastern outlier and the western outlier and plunk the official right in the middle. That's even when I've looked at the models and at times not one of them agree with the official. Seems strange.

Incidentally, I'm not completely ignorant in this area, I have a science background and teach high school science (including earth science). Don't get me wrong, I'm not anywhere close to a met, but I do have a basic education in this area.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica MikeCAdministrator Fri Sep 10 2004 08:05 PM
. * * Ivan core may miss Jamaica berrywr   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:39 PM
. * * Maps SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica ShanaTX   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica MO stormspotter   Fri Sep 10 2004 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica TLHJeff   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica MrSpock   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:02 PM
. * * ivan/little else HanKFranK   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:17 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:22 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else tenavilla   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:13 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else sullynole   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:22 PM
. * * Steve Jerve & VIPIR Model Colleen A.   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Steve Jerve & VIPIR Model rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:48 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else tenavilla   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:25 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else sullynole   Fri Sep 10 2004 07:56 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else tenavilla   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:05 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else ThirdRay   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:49 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else tenavilla   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:54 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else tenavilla   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:59 PM
. * * Just an FYI wxman007   Fri Sep 10 2004 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Just an FYI ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 07:15 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else MrSpock   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:59 PM
. * * pressure drop MrSpock   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:52 PM
. * * Re: pressure drop MrSpock   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:53 PM
. * * Re: pressure drop ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:53 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else tenavilla   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:51 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else meto   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:15 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else HCW   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:41 PM
. * * Forecast tracks/Model Tracks... wxman007   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:48 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else meto   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:45 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else BillD   Fri Sep 10 2004 07:11 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 07:44 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else Heather   Fri Sep 10 2004 07:49 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else DroopGB31   Fri Sep 10 2004 07:57 PM
. * * Meteorology vs. Psychology Bev   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology BillD   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology Rasvar   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:27 PM
. * * Tom Terry Colleen A.   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Tom Terry kelcot   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Tom Terry Colleen A.   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Tom Terry ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Tom Terry Jeffmidtown   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Tom Terry rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology MrSpock   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology MrSpock   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:36 PM
. * * Question SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Question MrSpock   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Question danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:51 PM
. * * Didn't see this till now... LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Didn't see this till now... Keith234   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Didn't see this till now... rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Didn't see this till now... danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Didn't see this till now... danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:31 PM
. * * Orlando getting hurricane winds? Hurricaned   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:34 PM
. * * Re: Didn't see this till now... meto   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:25 PM
. * * JB Jamiewx   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:16 PM
. * * Re: JB ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Punta Gorda evacuations Felix   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Punta Gorda evacuations LindaG   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:33 PM
. * * Re: Punta Gorda evacuations Felix   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:34 PM
. * * Re: Punta Gorda evacuations DroopGB31   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Punta Gorda evacuations Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Punta Gorda evacuations rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Punta Gorda evacuations Colleen A.   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Punta Gorda evacuations rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:41 PM
. * * 11:00 Discussion rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:47 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 Discussion HMY   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:51 PM
. * * Probabilities will go up along the entire Fl coast over time Frank P   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:03 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 Discussion Rasvar   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:02 PM
. * * Re: 11:00 Discussion LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:03 PM
. * * Use The New Thread Please Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Sep 10 2004 11:12 PM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Punta Gorda evacuations meto   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Punta Gorda evacuations meto   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:04 PM
. * * Trough SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:10 PM
. * * devastation Rasvar   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:55 PM
. * * Re: devastation danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:04 PM
. * * Re: devastation Frank P   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:30 PM
. * * Re: devastation rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:44 PM
. * * Re: devastation tazmanian93   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Update danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Update MrSpock   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Update ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:09 PM
. * * Re: devastation h2ocean   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:54 PM
. * * Re: devastation BillD   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:15 PM
. * * Re: devastation Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:26 PM
. * * Re: devastation LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:19 PM
. * * Re: devastation rd522525   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:26 PM
. * * Re: devastation kelcot   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:28 PM
. * * Re: devastation LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:27 PM
. * * Re: devastation 52255225   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:33 PM
. * * Re: devastation kelcot   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:30 PM
. * * Re: devastation TinaLee   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:32 PM
. * * Re: devastation h2ocean   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:23 PM
. * * Re: devastation MrSpock   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:33 PM
. * * Re: devastation troy   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:27 PM
. * * Re: devastation richiesurfs   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Tom Terry TinaLee   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:29 PM
. * * Re: devastation h2ocean   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Question danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Question LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Question DroopGB31   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:04 PM
. * * Looters and other pleasant folk LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Looters and other pleasant folk danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Looters and other pleasant folk MrSpock   Fri Sep 10 2004 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:54 PM
. * * Re: devastation kelcot   Fri Sep 10 2004 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Question HCW   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology Wxwatcher2   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Hang on Jamaica rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology DroopGB31   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology StormHound   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:43 PM
. * * Last GFS 18 UTC RBL   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Last GFS 18 UTC ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:43 PM
. * * Re: And now back to Ivan danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology MrSpock   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Meteorology vs. Psychology Heather   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:10 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 08:02 PM
. * * Site Problems/WV Loops LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 07:49 PM
. * * Stronger Ivan ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 07:55 PM
. * * Re: ivan/little else tenavilla   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica AgentB   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica G8R   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica meto   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica Frank P   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica MrSpock   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica Terra   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica GaryC   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:03 PM
. * * Hail? LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Hail? wxman007   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Hail? LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Hail? wxman007   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:22 PM
. * * Kingston Call Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Hail? MrSpock   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:08 PM
. * * Re: Hail? & ? for Jason Colleen A.   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Hail? & ? for Jason wxman007   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:40 PM
. * * Models Changes Timothy   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Hail? & ? for Jason Colleen A.   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Hail? & ? for Jason ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Hail? & ? for Jason ShanaTX   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Hail? & ? for Jason wxman007   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Hail? & ? for Jason ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Hail? & ? for Jason meto   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:07 PM
. * * back on track rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:26 PM
. * * Meto SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Meto tenavilla   Fri Sep 10 2004 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Hail? & ? for Jason Colleen A.   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Hail? & ? for Jason ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:34 PM
. * * Ivan SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Ivan MrSpock   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:23 PM
. * * By the way... SoonerShawn   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Hail? LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Hail? rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica G8R   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica rule   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica ShaggyDude   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:18 PM
. * * THANK YOU ALL belleami   Fri Sep 10 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica Cane Watcher   Fri Sep 10 2004 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica alley   Fri Sep 10 2004 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica Cane Watcher   Fri Sep 10 2004 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica Mozart   Fri Sep 10 2004 04:59 PM
. * * E-mail advisories... wxman007   Fri Sep 10 2004 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica LI Phil   Fri Sep 10 2004 04:47 PM

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