Hurricane Ivan to Melee with Jamaica

** WTNT24 KNHC 110148 ***
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
0300Z SAT SEP 11 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. THIS
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST
OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA. HURRICANE
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY...AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL CUBA.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS
HURRICANE IVAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 76.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 76.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 76.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.3N 77.9W...OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.3N 79.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.4N 80.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 81.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.0N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 35.5N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 76.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

I take it this is the one in error? Nice detective work.

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