As very fluid systems, hurricanes like to take the path of least resistance. You're right ... the topography is enough to steer Ivan to the left before it jumps north again, plus the upper level trofing to the north of Cuba may be helping to contain Ivan to the south on a more westward track. Amazing how accurate NHC has been with this Jamaica forecast. It will be interesting to watch once it clears Jamaica!
-------------------- "Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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Re: Why the more west movement?
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