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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

RevUp
Weather Guru

Reged:
Posts: 181

Re: Ronn
Sat Sep 11 2004 02:26 PM

Quote:

I can't recall, in past years, having quite the dramatic changes in the models, and forecast tracks, that we have been seeing this year ie. Charley, Frances, Ivan.

Yes, this is the first year of 5-day fcsts being released to the public, and we're seeing some of the short-term effects of how the media is handling the new information. Seems like a lot more confusion because we hear more people saying a variety of different things farther in advance. A lot of people talk as if the storm is going to hit their little corner of the world, which might just be true in some circumstances. The media can do a better job of educating, rather than just reacting to and propogating the hysteria.
The forecast tracks, models, etc. may seem a little more eratic, but that's because we've had way more than our usual number of storms around Florida, and Florida is at the latitude where a number of storms make their transition from the easterly tropics to the variable sub-tropics. The most difficult part of forecasting tropical cyclones is when they slow down or turn. Actually, I thought NHC has been very stable and consistent this year, despite the very unique challenges.

Edited by RevUp (Sat Sep 11 2004 04:39 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica	MikeC	Sat Sep 11 2004 02:26 PM
Re: Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica	Cane Watcher	Sat Sep 11 2004 07:04 PM
Re: Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica	Crystal	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:55 PM
Re: Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica	SkeetoBite	Sat Sep 11 2004 12:42 PM
Hurricane winds in Orlando?	Hurricaned	Sat Sep 11 2004 12:26 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	Kdubs	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:05 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	rule	Sat Sep 11 2004 12:45 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	tenavilla	Sat Sep 11 2004 12:52 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	RevUp	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:09 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:22 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	RevUp	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:30 PM
Spaghetti model down?	belleami	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:29 PM
Re: Spaghetti model down?	Terra	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:44 PM
Re: Spaghetti model down?	RevUp	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:33 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	InOrlando	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:28 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:28 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	Ronn	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:33 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	Wxwatcher2	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:52 PM
Ronn	SoonerShawn	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:55 PM
GOM fo sho	rickonboat	Sat Sep 11 2004 02:09 PM
Re: GOM fo sho	RevUp	Sat Sep 11 2004 02:16 PM
Re: GOM fo sho	trinibaje	Sat Sep 11 2004 02:17 PM
Re: GOM fo sho	52255225	Sat Sep 11 2004 02:24 PM
Re: GOM fo sho	HCW	Sat Sep 11 2004 02:21 PM
Re: GOM fo sho	Kimster	Sat Sep 11 2004 03:58 PM
Re: GOM fo sho	RevUp	Sat Sep 11 2004 02:31 PM
Re: GOM fo sho	Redbird	Sat Sep 11 2004 02:37 PM
Re: Ronn	SC Bill	Sat Sep 11 2004 02:08 PM
Re: Ronn	RevUp	Sat Sep 11 2004 02:26 PM
Re: Ronn	HMY	Sat Sep 11 2004 02:35 PM
Re: Ronn	RevUp	Sat Sep 11 2004 02:41 PM
Re: Ronn	Redbird	Sat Sep 11 2004 02:45 PM
Re: Ronn	RevUp	Sat Sep 11 2004 02:55 PM
Re: Ronn	52255225	Sat Sep 11 2004 03:01 PM
Re: Ronn	Wxwatcher2	Sat Sep 11 2004 03:00 PM
Re: Ronn	RevUp	Sat Sep 11 2004 03:02 PM
Re: Ronn	SoonerShawn	Sat Sep 11 2004 03:36 PM
Re: Ronn	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 03:50 PM
Re: Models	Storm Cooper	Sat Sep 11 2004 03:54 PM
Re: Models	HCW	Sat Sep 11 2004 03:57 PM
Re: Models	LI Phil	Sat Sep 11 2004 04:06 PM
Re: Models	Keith234	Sat Sep 11 2004 04:27 PM
Re: Models	Redbird	Sat Sep 11 2004 04:20 PM
Re: Models	MrSpock	Sat Sep 11 2004 04:41 PM
Re: Models	Redbird	Sat Sep 11 2004 04:48 PM
eye wall rebuilding project	rickonboat	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:00 PM
Re: eye wall rebuilding project	rule	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:36 PM
cranking up again	rule	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:56 PM
Re: cranking up again	MrSpock	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:58 PM
Re: eye wall rebuilding project	tenavilla	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:52 PM
Re: eye wall rebuilding project	tazmanian93	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:47 PM
Re: eye wall rebuilding project	FireAng85	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:57 PM
Re: eye wall rebuilding project	tazmanian93	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:01 PM
Re: eye wall rebuilding project	FireAng85	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:02 PM
Re: eye wall rebuilding project	FireAng85	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:24 PM
Re: eye wall rebuilding project	Clark	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:22 PM
Trough's Effect On Ivan	SoonerShawn	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:14 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	willy	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:08 PM
Willy	SoonerShawn	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:19 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	James88	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:13 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	Keith234	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:16 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	ShaggyDude	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:15 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	HMY	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:13 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	Second Shift	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:16 PM
Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson	Clark	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:30 PM
Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:33 PM
is the canadian model reliable?	waatcher	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:36 PM
Re: is the canadian model reliable?	Clark	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:47 PM
Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:35 PM
Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson	LI Phil	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:37 PM
Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson	StormHound	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:50 PM
Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:54 PM
Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson	willy	Sat Sep 11 2004 07:06 PM
Willy	SoonerShawn	Sat Sep 11 2004 07:12 PM
Re: Willy	willy	Sat Sep 11 2004 07:21 PM
Opinions on current motion	Rasvar	Sat Sep 11 2004 07:35 PM
Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:41 PM
Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:47 PM
Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson	Keith234	Sat Sep 11 2004 07:03 PM
Clark	SoonerShawn	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:52 PM
Re: Fujita vs. Saffir-Simpson	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:47 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	Keith234	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:19 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	Second Shift	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:25 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	LI Phil	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:33 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	Keith234	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:28 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:27 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	Clark	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:46 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	AgentB	Sat Sep 11 2004 07:32 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	DroopGB31	Sat Sep 11 2004 07:38 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	tenavilla	Sat Sep 11 2004 11:01 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	MikeC	Sat Sep 11 2004 10:45 PM
Canadian Club for Steve?	LI Phil	Sat Sep 11 2004 10:53 PM
What? Western Gulf?	SoonerShawn	Sat Sep 11 2004 10:57 PM
current path	rule	Sat Sep 11 2004 10:50 PM
Re: current path	rule	Sat Sep 11 2004 10:58 PM
Re: current path	LI Phil	Sat Sep 11 2004 10:59 PM
912 mb	Frank P	Sat Sep 11 2004 10:55 PM
Re: 912 mb	mud1967	Sat Sep 11 2004 11:11 PM
Re: current path	MrSpock	Sat Sep 11 2004 10:52 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	Rasvar	Sat Sep 11 2004 10:47 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	Keith234	Sat Sep 11 2004 10:59 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	LI Phil	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:30 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	Keith234	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:29 PM
Jason234	SoonerShawn	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:36 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	Keith234	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:15 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	Steve	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:22 PM
Re: Trough's Effect On Ivan	MrSpock	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:38 PM
Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?	LI Phil	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:47 PM
Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?	Keith234	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:56 PM
North?	SoonerShawn	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:58 PM
Re: North?	tenavilla	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:04 PM
Re: North?	Keith234	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:02 PM
Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?	James88	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:53 PM
Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?	clyde w.	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:58 PM
Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?	52255225	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:56 PM
Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:59 PM
Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?	52255225	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:03 PM
Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?	52255225	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:53 PM
Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?	LI Phil	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:02 PM
Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?	52255225	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:05 PM
Re: Will Ivan Get Back To CAT V Status?	tazmanian93	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:50 PM
Re: eye wall rebuilding project	KJJBCr	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:12 PM
Re: Models	LI Phil	Sat Sep 11 2004 04:57 PM
Re: Models	Keith234	Sat Sep 11 2004 04:46 PM
Re: Models	Clark	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:18 PM
Re: Models	Keith234	Sat Sep 11 2004 06:06 PM
Re: Models	Second Shift	Sat Sep 11 2004 05:44 PM
Re: Models	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 04:38 PM
Re: Models	HMY	Sat Sep 11 2004 04:13 PM
Re: Models	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 04:08 PM
Re: Models	Storm Cooper	Sat Sep 11 2004 04:00 PM
Re: Models	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 04:02 PM
Re: Ronn	Chad	Sat Sep 11 2004 03:47 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	Ronn	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:43 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	tenavilla	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:15 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	willy	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:07 PM
Alabama	Takingforever	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:06 PM
Re: Alabama	tenavilla	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:11 PM
Re: Alabama	mbfly	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:28 PM
New Projected Path	Terra	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:04 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	rule	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:00 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:13 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	Storm Cooper	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:22 PM
NW path	rule	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:20 PM
Re: Hurricane winds in Orlando?	tenavilla	Sat Sep 11 2004 01:06 PM
Clark - last night quote	belleami	Sat Sep 11 2004 12:59 PM
Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica	rule	Sat Sep 11 2004 12:21 PM
Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 12:31 PM
Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 12:33 PM
Re: Amazingly, Ivan skirts South of Jamaica	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 11 2004 12:35 PM

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