Quote: I can't recall, in past years, having quite the dramatic changes in the models, and forecast tracks, that we have been seeing this year ie. Charley, Frances, Ivan.
Yes, this is the first year of 5-day fcsts being released to the public, and we're seeing some of the short-term effects of how the media is handling the new information. Seems like a lot more confusion because we hear more people saying a variety of different things farther in advance. A lot of people talk as if the storm is going to hit their little corner of the world, which might just be true in some circumstances. The media can do a better job of educating, rather than just reacting to and propogating the hysteria.
The forecast tracks, models, etc. may seem a little more eratic, but that's because we've had way more than our usual number of storms around Florida, and Florida is at the latitude where a number of storms make their transition from the easterly tropics to the variable sub-tropics. The most difficult part of forecasting tropical cyclones is when they slow down or turn. Actually, I thought NHC has been very stable and consistent this year, despite the very unique challenges.
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