Strangely enough though, of the dynamical models (excluding combinations of multiple models and the like), the GFS has the least amount of errors at 3-5 days. The only problem is that most of them are location/track and not time errors - i.e. it is saying Jacksonville instead of Cape Canaveral instead of saying Cape Canaveral at 6z day 5 versus Cape Canaveral at 6z day 6. In my view, if there is going to be error, it's better to get the location right than the exact timing - particularly if you are going to be too fast with the storm. It is in this that model track error analyses just based upon miles can be misleading.
Needless to say though, the models have come into better agreement on a track...I just wish what was actually going on out there would match with that! I would've expected a more westward movement a day or two ago based upon what is/what is going to be out there, but the models were mostly east. Now, I'd expect a slight bit more of a turn to the N based upon the weather pattern, but the models are mostly west now.
It just goes to show you that no one from Biloxi east needs to let their guard down with this storm.
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