I put mine out Monday if that counts. I had it from Moss Point to Seaside. When the models clustered around Port Charlotte again yesterday, I presented it. But I'm sticking with what I went with to begin with even if I end up too far west.
Bastardi mentioned 3 scenarios with this storm. He changed his forecast yesterday and may regret it. Scenario #1 (which was always his take until he changed horses) was that it was coming in somewhere between the Mouth of the Mississippi River and Apalachacola. If this is the case, he expects a MAJOR hit (big time, not necessarily a quote-unquote major hurricane). Scenario #2 is Charley redux. The storm comes in close enough to the coast of FL and gets pulled in south of Tampa with a storm about the size of Frances with the strength of Charley. It makes its way up to the Carolinas as the worst rain event yet for them. Scenario #3 takes the storm into the Big Bend area (the TPC track from earlier) but not as a major. Apparently almost every storm going in that area landfalls at < 85mph (or at least according to his research).
So we'll see. No one's off the hook, but I think my original 6 day forecast may end up being a tad west while the NHC's current is probably a tad east. The compromise is Seaside-Blue Mt. Beach-Seagrove, etc. to SW of Perry.
9/11 pisses me off to no end. One day someone's going to make it a priority for those scumbags to be brought to justice
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