I think you are right about the so called trough affecting Ivan. I keep looking at the water vapor loops and the ridge of high pressure that is diving down across Cuba continues to move all of the cloud patterns off to the west.I may be wrong but I think Ivan may very well end up in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico if something doesn't give pretty soon. Also if you look at the water vapor loop for the Gulf of Mexico,it looks like the so called trough is being pushed back northward below Miss. & Alabama.
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