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Rafael continues to decouple over the Gulf. Meanwhile we are keeping a watch on Invest 98L around the Bahamas and potentially a new low forming in the Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 31 (Milton) , Major: 31 (Milton) Florida - Any: 31 (Milton) Major: 31 (Milton)
26.1N 91.3W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Moving:
E at 3 mph
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Movement
      Sat Sep 11 2004 09:32 PM

Ivan has a definate stair step pattern in his motion. Fifteen minute intervals seem to show the true general motion. Looks like it will be a very close run at Grand Cayman. Possibly a direct hit. I don't think frictional issues will save Grand Cayman like Jamacia was spared. If Ivan does hit Cuba, I actually think the frictional pattern will pull him slightly to the east for a short time and then he will resume his course.


This far out, I am leery of any forecast that is after landfalll in Cuba. The weaker Ivan becomes on his transverse of Cuba will probaby help dictate the what happens afterward. I think a stronger storm will trend further west then a weaker storm. No one on the Gulf Coast should let their guard down. However, I doubt that there will be a swing towards the Keys or SW Florida. I would not take a chance, though.

Edit to change prior to landfall to after landfall. [I had a brain fart while typing]

Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 11 2004 09:35 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five MikeCAdministrator Sat Sep 11 2004 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five captgene   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five SirCane   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five robynsmom   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five BillD   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:37 PM
. * * Back up again LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Back up again Storm Cooper   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five ShaggyDude   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five richiesurfs   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five BillD   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five BabyCat   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:25 PM
. * * Is it me JackF   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Is it me Ronn   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:55 PM
. * * So, what do you think? FireAng85   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Is it me 52255225   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:56 PM
. * * Ivan is Moving SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:34 PM
. * * Re: Ivan is Moving BillD   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Ivan is Moving Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Ivan is Moving tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Ivan is Moving Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Ivan is Moving 52255225   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five BabyCat   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five kelcot   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:35 PM
. * * warm water, landfall MrSpock   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:02 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:11 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall javlin   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:10 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall Storm Cooper   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:29 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall javlin   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:16 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:17 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall javlin   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:24 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:32 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:42 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:47 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:48 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall MrSpock   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:50 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall Frank P   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:10 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:24 PM
. * * Rasvar SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:36 PM
. * * NHC SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Re: NHC rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:56 PM
. * * Re: NHC Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:59 PM
. * * Re: NHC Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:02 PM
. * * Re: NHC Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:07 PM
. * * Re: NHC jamserve   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:12 PM
. * * Re: NHC Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Rasvar SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: NHC GuppieGrouper   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:54 PM
. * * My last post SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Rasvar Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:41 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:31 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:30 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall breeezy   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:43 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Westward?? danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:37 PM
. * * Re: 11pm discussion Yuk danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:34 PM
. * * Re: 11pm discussion Yuk GuppieGrouper   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:38 PM
. * * Re: 11pm discussion Yuk Frank P   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:47 PM
. * * Re: 11pm discussion Yuk BillD   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:28 PM
. * * Re: New Thread danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:29 PM
. * * BillD SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Re: BillD BillD   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:05 PM
. * * Re: BillD rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:12 PM
. * * The bottom line is... SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:18 PM
. * * Re: BillD Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:59 PM
. * * Re: BillD jultime   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:16 PM
. * * NHC 5 Day LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:20 PM
. * * Re: NHC 5 Day MrSpock   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: BillD rd522525   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:03 PM
. * * Re: BillD rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:01 PM
. * * Still West rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Still West tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Still West Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Still West KJJBCr   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Still West tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: 11pm discussion Yuk BillD   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:47 PM
. * * Re: 11pm discussion Yuk StormHound   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:45 PM
. * * Re: 11pm discussion Yuk rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:43 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:34 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:43 PM
. * * SHEAR! SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:17 PM
. * * Re: SHEAR! Renee   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:24 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:14 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:32 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:38 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:51 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall Renee   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:21 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:29 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall MrSpock   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Grand Cayman Weather and Recon danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:24 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 10:09 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:44 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:46 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:41 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:44 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:49 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:21 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:41 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall BillD   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:43 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:43 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:47 PM
. * * Movement SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Movement rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Movement Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:32 PM
. * * record breaker rule   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:53 PM
. * * Re: record breaker BillD   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:03 PM
. * * Re: record breaker tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:01 PM
. * * Re: record breaker waatcher   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:04 PM
. * * Re: record breaker RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:12 PM
. * * Re: record breaker LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:18 PM
. * * Re: record breaker RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:28 PM
. * * Re: record breaker MrSpock   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:11 PM
. * * Re: record breaker Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:56 PM
. * * Re: record breaker MrSpock   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:01 PM
. * * Re: record breaker Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:02 PM
. * * Re: record breaker MrSpock   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:09 PM
. * * Re: record breaker GuppieGrouper   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:16 PM
. * * Re: record breaker tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:10 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall Rasvar   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:08 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall GuppieGrouper   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:15 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:18 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:10 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall MrSpock   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:10 PM
. * * Re: warm water, landfall BillD   Sat Sep 11 2004 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five GuppieGrouper   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:24 PM
. * * What? Western Gulf? SoonerShawn   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five Second Shift   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:21 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five Second Shift   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five belleami   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five mud1967   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five RevUp   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five mud1967   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five MParker   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five Keith234   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five tenavilla   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:17 PM
. * * Canadian Club for Steve? LI Phil   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Canadian Club for Steve? captgene   Sat Sep 11 2004 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Agian Category Five SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sat Sep 11 2004 07:01 PM

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