Kelcot, Ivan shouldnt weaken to much crossing Western Cuba but once he gets in the Gulf shear is forecasted to hopefully weaken Ivan a bit, also the TCHP isnt as high except in a area south of Mobile. So to answer your question, conditions wont be perfect like they are now to sustain a Cat5 in the gulf but maybe a strong 3. just my opinion and things could change so just watch it carefully.
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