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Tropical Storm Alberto has formed from Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L. Onshore flow creating some surge, wind and heavy rains into TX/MX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 294 (Idalia) , Major: 294 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 294 (Idalia) Major: 294 (Idalia)
22.2N 95.0W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 995mb
Moving:
W at 9 mph
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Westward Ho!
      Sun Sep 12 2004 12:47 PM

I must have missed the northerly component while sleeping. That is too bad, as I would have liked to see it go with the mets are saying. I'm still saying miss Cuba and end up much further west than projections.

I also wanted to reply to the long post on page 5 about the models. I don't remember all of my points, but I agreed with some of what you said. I personally like the 5-day forecast for scientific purposes, not public knowledge. 5-days is way too far out to get a good estimate, but a bad estimate (to me) is better than nothing. I think the cone is vital to those models, as it shows the uncertainty. So, when you're comparing shifts in model predictions, ask yourself.... is it still in the original cone? The the model is valid and the shift is reasonable. The reason the cone is so large at 5-days is the uncertainty increases dramatically. If you remove the cone, you will panic the public, who do not understand that the model predictions are only estimates and not the actual track. They will think that the actual model prediction is what is going to happen. People tend to overrestimate the knowledge and understanding of the general public.... We are not the general public! The cone at least shows the possibility of error. Anyway, I would try and deter the media from showing this forecast and often unnecessarity worrying the public.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman MikeCAdministrator Sun Sep 12 2004 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman Mooshie-SC   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:27 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman ShanaTX   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:30 AM
. * * Re:Poor initialization javlin   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:41 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman Mooshie-SC   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:41 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman Tazmanian93   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:39 AM
. * * Newest advisory out ShanaTX   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:05 AM
. * * New recon fix Clark   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:10 AM
. * * Re: New recon fix Tazmanian93   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:21 AM
. * * Re: New recon fix mikeG   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:23 AM
. * * Re: New recon fix Tazmanian93   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:26 AM
. * * Re: New recon fix ShanaTX   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:13 AM
. * * Re: New recon fix danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:27 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman Lisa NC   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:32 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman DroopGB31   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:14 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:09 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman kelcot   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:17 AM
. * * Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... Terra   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:29 AM
. * * Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:36 AM
. * * Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:40 AM
. * * Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:44 AM
. * * Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... Terra   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:38 AM
. * * Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... Rasvar   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:32 AM
. * * Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... GuppieGrouper   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:39 AM
. * * Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... recmod   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:01 AM
. * * Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... kelcot   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:42 AM
. * * HEY JASON!!!!!!!!!! FlaRebel   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:44 AM
. * * Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... tenavilla   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:34 AM
. * * Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... Rasvar   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:40 AM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:48 AM
. * * Re: Recon MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:54 AM
. * * Re: Recon tenavilla   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:59 AM
. * * Re: Recon HCW   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:01 AM
. * * Re: Recon tenavilla   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:04 AM
. * * Re: Recon BillD   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:09 AM
. * * Re: Recon LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:15 AM
. * * current strength? rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:06 AM
. * * New Recon Decoder Version Londovir   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:21 AM
. * * Re: New Recon Decoder Version Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:42 AM
. * * Re: New Recon Decoder Version Londovir   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:06 AM
. * * Re: New Recon Decoder Version Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:20 AM
. * * All Clear? Tim in NO   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:28 AM
. * * Re: All Clear? Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:34 AM
. * * NW Jog Tim in NO   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:39 AM
. * * Re: NW Jog Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:53 AM
. * * Re: New Recon Decoder Version danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:18 AM
. * * Re: New Recon Decoder Version MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:27 AM
. * * Re: Recon BillD   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:01 AM
. * * Canadian.... western outlier... LA/MS line in 96 hours Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:13 AM
. * * Re: Canadian.... western outlier... LA/MS line in 96 hours HCW   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:14 AM
. * * Re: Canadian.... western outlier... LA/MS line in 96 hours Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:25 AM
. * * Re: Canadian.... western outlier... LA/MS line in 96 hours Rasvar   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:20 AM
. * * Re: Recon MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:00 AM
. * * Re: Recon Rasvar   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:55 AM
. * * Re: New models danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:58 AM
. * * Re: New models KJJBCr   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:01 AM
. * * Re: New models kelcot   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:59 AM
. * * Re: New models Tazmanian93   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:27 AM
. * * Re: New models Rasvar   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:36 AM
. * * Re: New models Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:00 AM
. * * Re: New models Tazmanian93   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:07 AM
. * * Re: New models meto   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:15 AM
. * * Re: New models MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:18 AM
. * * Re: New models Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:23 AM
. * * Re: New models meto   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:38 AM
. * * Re: New models Tazmanian93   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:42 AM
. * * Re: New models Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:54 AM
. * * Re: New models Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:10 AM
. * * Re: New models javlin   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:29 AM
. * * Re: New models danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:37 AM
. * * Re: New models javlin   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:43 AM
. * * Re: New models danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:05 AM
. * * Re: Satellites danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:12 AM
. * * Re: CHECK SATS! john03   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:10 AM
. * * Re: CHECK SATS! mikeG   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:11 AM
. * * Re: CHECK SATS! Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:40 AM
. * * Re: CHECK SATS! danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 07:41 AM
. * * Re: CHECK SATS! GuppieGrouper   Sun Sep 12 2004 10:23 AM
. * * Last two hours=mostly WEST Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:50 AM
. * * Westward Ho! JackF   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Westward Ho! Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Westward Ho! caneman   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Westward Ho! Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Westward Ho! GuppieGrouper   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Westward Ho! Terra   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:47 PM
. * * Break in ridge to north? Ormond Suzie   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Westward Ho! SAM33   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Shear! Fred08   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Shear! Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Shear! tenavilla   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Shear! MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Shear! GuppieGrouper   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Shear! Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Shear! tenavilla   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Shear! tenavilla   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Shear! Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Shear! Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Shear! MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Shear! Jeffmidtown   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Shear! Kal   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Shear! Orlando   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Shear! Rabbit   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Shear! teal61   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Shear! BillD   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Shear! Fred08   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:16 PM
. * * EYE vis. MikeG   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:29 PM
. * * Re: EYE vis. GuppieGrouper   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:47 PM
. * * Re: EYE vis. KC   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:51 PM
. * * Re: EYE vis. spook   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Shear! Jeffmidtown   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Shear! nick8   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Shear! rd522525   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Shear! mud1967   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:09 PM
. * * New Orleans NWS SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:13 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans NWS willy   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:40 PM
. * * Westward trend continues Wxwatcher2   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Models and Troughs SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Models and Troughs rd522525   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Models and Troughs Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Shear! Keith234   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Shear! BillD   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Shear! CentralFlorida   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Westward Ho! Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Westward Ho! jlauderdal   Sun Sep 12 2004 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Westward Ho! robynsmom   Sun Sep 12 2004 01:16 PM
. * * Re: CHECK SATS! James88   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:33 AM
. * * Re: CHECK SATS! Domino   Sun Sep 12 2004 08:57 AM
. * * Re: New models Tazmanian93   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:07 AM
. * * Re: New models MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:04 AM
. * * Re: New models Tazmanian93   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:09 AM
. * * Re: New models BabyCat   Sun Sep 12 2004 06:09 AM
. * * Re: New models scottsvb1   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:41 AM
. * * Re: New models scottsvb1   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:25 AM
. * * Sat Loops Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:30 AM
. * * Re: New models Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:29 AM
. * * Re: New models OZ IN FL   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:22 AM
. * * Re: New models Tazmanian93   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:18 AM
. * * Re: New models scottsvb1   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:19 AM
. * * Re: New models Colleen A.   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:26 AM
. * * Re: New models scottsvb1   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:29 AM
. * * Re: New models scottsvb1   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:30 AM
. * * Re: New models MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:01 AM
. * * Re: Tampa Area kempshark   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Tampa Area Tazmanian93   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:55 AM
. * * recon BabyCat   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:58 AM
. * * Re: recon danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:03 AM
. * * Re: New models scottsvb1   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:41 AM
. * * Re: New models Tazmanian93   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:40 AM
. * * WOBBLE! SoonerShawn   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:46 AM
. * * Re: WOBBLE! Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:57 AM
. * * Re: WOBBLE! LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:01 AM
. * * Boat on a bay.... Frank P   Sun Sep 12 2004 04:20 AM
. * * Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:45 AM
. * * Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not.... Rasvar   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:52 AM
. * * Excellent post .. very honest well written words LoisCane   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:27 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:25 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman DroopGB31   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:39 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:49 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:28 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman sullynole   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:32 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman Jeffmidtown   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:31 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman MrSpock   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:33 AM
. * * Forecasts and models BeachBum   Sun Sep 12 2004 05:08 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman LI Phil   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman tenavilla   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:28 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman DroopGB31   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:25 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman kelcot   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:29 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman 52255225   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:16 AM
. * * Whew... rule   Sun Sep 12 2004 03:24 AM

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