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#HurricaneBeryl is now an extremely dangerous, one-of-a-kind Category 4 Hurricane and could be making a run for Cat 5 prior to landfall.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 305 (Idalia) , Major: 305 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 305 (Idalia) Major: 305 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#8 4:00 pm EDT
10.7N 54.9W
Wind: 120MPH
Pres: 964mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2002 Storm Forum
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
TS Edouard - Update
      Mon Sep 02 2002 10:59 PM

Edouard is still in a holding pattern. Upper level westerlies have once again pushed convection away from the center while the center itself has stalled. If the ridge building behind the trough starts to 'push' the center southward - and all it would take would be about one degree - the system could intensify quickly without the disruption of the narrow westerly jet. Model runs this evening are again all over the place - or no place at all, i.e., the tropical suite generally holds the system in place. I still think that a southwest drift is an eventual scenario. A small adjustment to the south could quickly turn Edouard into a dangerous storm for the northern half of the Florida east coast (and perhaps even the west coast). Some dry air entrainment might occur, but the westerly jet would probably keep most of the drier air to the north of the system, and the system is not likely to pull any dry air into it until it gets stronger anyway. Not too much has changed in the past 12 hours, except the GFDL northerly loop in the next 24 hours is not likely.
Cheers,
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Edouard Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Sep 02 2002 10:59 PM
. * * TS Edouard - Update Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 02 2002 10:59 PM
. * * Re: TS Edouard - Update HanKFranK   Tue Sep 03 2002 12:44 AM
. * * Edouard - The Storm of the Century Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Sep 03 2002 10:00 PM
. * * ukmet can bite me HanKFranK   Wed Sep 04 2002 12:48 AM
. * * Edouard Looks Weak - But Gulf Looks Interesting Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Sep 04 2002 10:42 PM
. * * well.. HanKFranK   Sat Sep 07 2002 03:57 AM

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