I am expecting a turn more towards the NW, and I am expecting it tonight. The problem is, this is very hard to turn, and there simply isn't enough experience forecasting turns on 4's and 5's. Gilbert was expected to hit La. at one point, and ended up in NE Mexico. In all fairness, most of these models didn't exist back then. I still think this should end up between La. and the Panhandle of Fla, and I know no one is out of the woods, but it does not look like the west coast of Fla. will see a landfall. It has had trouble turning, and would have to make a hard right. There is one wildcard in this that no one has mentioned. IF Ivan weakens significantly, it will be easier to turn. It will also be steered by a lower level flow. However, it would have to weaken considerably for that last scenario, and it is not likely. In fact, it is too early to call it a turn, but it appears to be moving at about 300 deg. the last few hours, and on this path would take it through the Yucatan channel. It also has limited outflow to the NW side, and may be ingesting some dry air. These all may be the first signs of that bend. I would like to hear it from the NHC though, this is strictly an amateur's opinion.
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