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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Anonymous
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Re: Tuesday Edouard Update
      Tue Sep 03 2002 05:07 PM

Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 9


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2002



dry air and shear put an end to the intensification of Edouard.
Each subsequent recon pass measured less wind. A NOAA research
aircraft is currently in the cyclone...and has found no flight-level
winds higher than 45 kt. One can argue that the strong winds found
this morning were mesoscale...rather than cyclone scale...but in any
event they are not there any more. There is no longer any deep
convection in the system...although there is still some about 50 N
mi to the east. The current intensity estimate of 45 kt may be
generous.
Edouard has been moving at 240/5...although the last few images
suggest a slower motion. The predominantly shallow system is
expected to continue to the west-southwest. The official forecast
is considerably quicker to the coast than the previous
advisory...and is close to a blend of the GFDL and shallow BAM
guidance. Interestingly...the UKMET turns the system around before
reaching the coast.
Although the SHIPS model still forecasts strengthening...the
official forecast calls for weakening to depression status before
landfall...given that dry air will continue to surround the cyclone
and the shear is expected to remain strong.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/2100z 29.8n 79.2w 45 kts
12hr VT 04/0600z 29.6n 80.1w 35 kts
24hr VT 04/1800z 29.3n 81.2w 30 kts...inland
36hr VT 05/0600z 28.8n 82.4w 25 kts...inland
48hr VT 05/1800z 28.5n 83.5w 30 kts...over water
72hr VT 06/1800z 28.5n 85.0w 35 kts



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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tuesday Edouard Update CFHCAdministrator Tue Sep 03 2002 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update squirralee   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:57 AM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 05:32 PM
. * * Edouard looks like more of a rain even that anything else. Kevin   Tue Sep 03 2002 05:50 PM
. * * Cristobal Colleen A.   Tue Sep 03 2002 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Cristobal Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Colleen A.   Tue Sep 03 2002 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Frank P   Tue Sep 03 2002 05:57 PM
. * * LOL, Frank! Colleen A.   Tue Sep 03 2002 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Frank P   Tue Sep 03 2002 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update MarkR   Tue Sep 03 2002 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 05:01 PM
. * * Tough call on the Gulf... Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Joe   Tue Sep 03 2002 04:59 PM
. * * 5PM Update WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Sep 03 2002 04:53 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 07:28 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 06:39 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 06:43 PM
. * * Not only did he have 3 updates on his column... Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column... troy2   Wed Sep 04 2002 02:25 AM
. * * EARLY MORNING UPDATE WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Sep 04 2002 05:29 AM
. * * Re: EARLY MORNING UPDATE Mary K.   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:27 AM
. * * Re: EARLY MORNING UPDATE StormHound   Wed Sep 04 2002 07:24 AM
. * * Lotsa interesting 'things'... Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 07:59 AM
. * * Hmmm... StormHound   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:07 AM
. * * Re: Lotsa interesting 'things'... ShawnS   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:06 AM
. * * Re: EARLY MORNING UPDATE MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 04 2002 07:50 AM
. * * Channel 9 Alan   Tue Sep 03 2002 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Channel 9 Alan   Tue Sep 03 2002 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Channel 9 Hurric   Tue Sep 03 2002 11:41 PM
. * * ED has been a real good fighter Cycloneye   Tue Sep 03 2002 11:47 PM
. * * Dolly Robert   Wed Sep 04 2002 12:05 AM
. * * dolly edouard 95L etc HanKFranK   Wed Sep 04 2002 12:30 AM
. * * Re: Channel 9 Floridacane   Tue Sep 03 2002 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column... troy2   Tue Sep 03 2002 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column... Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 09:06 PM
. * * On the move again? Frank P   Tue Sep 03 2002 09:30 PM
. * * Convection closing in on the center StormHound   Tue Sep 03 2002 10:09 PM
. * * GOM ShawnS   Tue Sep 03 2002 10:20 PM
. * * Re: GOM ShawnS   Tue Sep 03 2002 10:27 PM
. * * Re: GOM Rasvar   Tue Sep 03 2002 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Convection growing Rasvar   Tue Sep 03 2002 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column... 57497479   Tue Sep 03 2002 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column... Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column... Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column... Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column... Frank P   Tue Sep 03 2002 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column... StormHound   Tue Sep 03 2002 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column... Frank P   Tue Sep 03 2002 08:59 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update Mitch   Tue Sep 03 2002 07:17 PM
. * * What is going on? ShawnS   Tue Sep 03 2002 07:07 PM
. * * Vivian Brown on TWC is Horrible !! Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Vivian Brown on TWC isn't horrible Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 06:09 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update Mike   Tue Sep 03 2002 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 04:11 PM
. * * MOVEMENT WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Sep 03 2002 04:16 PM
. * * 2:00pm model runs garyb   Tue Sep 03 2002 03:03 PM
. * * Re: 2:00pm model runs Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 03:28 PM
. * * 1:00 PM VORTEX DATA garyb   Tue Sep 03 2002 02:03 PM
. * * Re: 1:00 PM VORTEX DATA andy1tom   Tue Sep 03 2002 02:21 PM
. * * MET OFFICE, BRACKNELL, UK 1728Z garyb   Tue Sep 03 2002 01:51 PM
. * * burst time HanKFranK   Tue Sep 03 2002 03:19 PM
. * * Re: burst time Colleen A.   Tue Sep 03 2002 03:32 PM
. * * Re: MET OFFICE, BRACKNELL, UK 1728Z Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 01:58 PM
. * * Re: MET OFFICE, BRACKNELL, UK 1728Z Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Wind shear Rasvar   Tue Sep 03 2002 02:05 PM
. * * Rasvar... Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Rasvar... Joe   Tue Sep 03 2002 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update troy2   Tue Sep 03 2002 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Frank P   Tue Sep 03 2002 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Frank P   Tue Sep 03 2002 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Hurric   Tue Sep 03 2002 01:36 PM
. * * Movement WSW? Frank P   Tue Sep 03 2002 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Rasvar   Tue Sep 03 2002 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update Anonymous   Tue Sep 03 2002 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Tuesday Edouard Update 11:00 garyb   Tue Sep 03 2002 10:53 AM

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