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Rafael continues to decouple over the Gulf. Meanwhile we are keeping a watch on Invest 98L around the Bahamas and potentially a new low forming in the Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 31 (Milton) , Major: 31 (Milton) Florida - Any: 31 (Milton) Major: 31 (Milton)
TS Rafael
ADV#29 9:00 am EDT
26.3N 91.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1003mb
Moving:
Nnw at 3 mph
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
Re: Morning Burst
      Wed Sep 04 2002 09:32 AM

I've always liked the central pressure for a predictor of how the intensity of a storm is going to go. The lower the pressure, the more rapidly the storm's moving air up its core, and so the more rapidly air has to flow into the storm to replace that air. Yesterday we saw the pressure drop down to 1003, followed by an increase in intensity. The pressure went back up, and wind speeds dropped. The 2 a.m. recon had the central pressure down to 1002, where it's remained even up through the 8 a.m. recon. So we've got the pressure and a flare-up of convection on the plus side, and the shear on the minus side. Despite the NHC forecast of weakening before landfall, I suspect Edouard has a good chance of strengthening. Hopefully, however, the shear will win out before Edouard gets to the coast.

Chris

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday CFHCAdministrator Wed Sep 04 2002 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Joe   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:30 PM
. * * Link to Data Bouy Cocoa Beach   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:06 PM
. * * Also... Kevin   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Also... Rasvar   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Also... caneman   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:23 PM
. * * GOM Low Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 02:06 PM
. * * Re: GOM Low ShawnS   Wed Sep 04 2002 02:14 PM
. * * Re: GOM Low Frank P   Wed Sep 04 2002 03:00 PM
. * * Re: GOM Low doug   Wed Sep 04 2002 03:18 PM
. * * Gulf Low - note from Accuweather... Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low - note from Accuweather... Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low - 12Z GFDL out... Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 03:50 PM
. * * Look out Central Florida (where I live!) Kevin   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Look out Central Florida (where I live!) Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Look out Central Florida (where I live!) Mary K.   Wed Sep 04 2002 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Look out Central Florida (where I live!) Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 11:39 PM
. * * feebs HanKFranK   Wed Sep 04 2002 11:53 PM
. * * NW Orange County Alan   Wed Sep 04 2002 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Look out Central Florida (where I live!) Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 06:42 PM
. * * Re: Look out Central Florida (where I live!) Floridacane   Wed Sep 04 2002 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Look out Central Florida (where I live!) Steve777   Wed Sep 04 2002 05:24 PM
. * * FLOOD WARNING WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Sep 04 2002 05:32 PM
. * * FLOODING WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Sep 04 2002 05:49 PM
. * * Probabilities update Frank P   Wed Sep 04 2002 06:05 PM
. * * another slowdown HanKFranK   Wed Sep 04 2002 06:18 PM
. * * Weather now in SW Seminole County, Florida Kevin   Wed Sep 04 2002 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Weather now in SW Seminole County, Florida Kevin   Wed Sep 04 2002 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Weather now in SW Seminole County, Florida Mary K.   Wed Sep 04 2002 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Weather now in SW Seminole County, Florida Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:44 PM
. * * GFDL 18Z - 2 Texas Hits? 3? Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 09:17 PM
. * * Re: GFDL 18Z - 2 Texas Hits? 3? Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 09:33 PM
. * * Steve ShawnS   Wed Sep 04 2002 09:56 PM
. * * GOM Development/Edouard Update Jason M   Wed Sep 04 2002 10:00 PM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 11:26 PM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 11:54 PM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 01:34 AM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update ShawnS   Thu Sep 05 2002 07:21 AM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 07:40 AM
. * * gulf/95L/second HanKFranK   Thu Sep 05 2002 08:33 AM
. * * WAY TO GO HANKFRANK Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 09:07 AM
. * * Re: WAY TO GO HANKFRANK caneman   Thu Sep 05 2002 09:45 AM
. * * Re: WAY TO GO HANKFRANK Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 10:09 AM
. * * Re: WAY TO GO HANKFRANK Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 10:04 AM
. * * Re: WAY TO GO HANKFRANK caneman   Thu Sep 05 2002 10:09 AM
. * * Re: WAY TO GO HANKFRANK tom5r   Thu Sep 05 2002 10:28 AM
. * * Re: WAY TO GO HANKFRANK caneman   Thu Sep 05 2002 10:12 AM
. * * Re: WAY TO GO HANKFRANK Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 10:30 AM
. * * Back to the tropics Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Back to the tropics Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Back to the tropics caneman   Thu Sep 05 2002 10:45 AM
. * * Center trying to form? Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 11:21 AM
. * * Re: Center trying to form? J.J.   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Center trying to form? troy2   Thu Sep 05 2002 03:07 PM
. * * Re: Center trying to form? Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Center trying to form? Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Center trying to form? J.J.   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:02 PM
. * * TD# 6 Is Formed Mike   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:07 PM
. * * Re: TD# 6 Is Formed HanKFranK   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:18 PM
. * * The tropics today. Kevin   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:47 PM
. * * GREAT RADAR WEBSITE WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 05 2002 05:00 PM
. * * The shear monster Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 05:18 PM
. * * Re: The shear monster caneman   Thu Sep 05 2002 05:25 PM
. * * Re: The shear monster Joe   Thu Sep 05 2002 06:10 PM
. * * Typos Kevin   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:52 PM
. * * Hey Cycloneye... Steve   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:23 PM
. * * Hey Steve Cycloneye   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:48 PM
. * * NW GOM Rich B   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:54 PM
. * * Model runs Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Model runs Steve   Thu Sep 05 2002 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Model runs Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Model runs Steve   Thu Sep 05 2002 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Model runs Steve   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Model runs Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Model runs Steve   Thu Sep 05 2002 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Model runs Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 03:06 PM
. * * Summary of atlantic tropics Cycloneye   Thu Sep 05 2002 11:50 AM
. * * Bothered to log in again and I GET HIT WITH EDOUARD! Steve   Thu Sep 05 2002 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Bothered to log in again and I GET HIT WITH EDOUARD! Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:04 PM
. * * commentary HanKFranK   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:32 PM
. * * HF... Steve   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:34 PM
. * * WOW NW GOM looking VERY mpressive Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Back to the tropics Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 10:43 AM
. * * Back to the Gulf Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 10:09 AM
. * * Northwest Gom.. Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 10:03 AM
. * * Re: gulf/95L/second Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 08:42 AM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 08:10 AM
. * * Corpus Buoy Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 08:19 AM
. * * Fay & The European Model... Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 08:19 AM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update ShawnS   Thu Sep 05 2002 08:01 AM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Weather now in SW Seminole County, Florida Mary K.   Wed Sep 04 2002 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Weather now in SW Seminole County, Florida Chad   Wed Sep 04 2002 06:36 PM
. * * Hey Kevin! Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Hey Kevin! Floridacane   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low - note from Accuweather... Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 03:49 PM
. * * Thanks Cy-eye... Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 03:10 PM
. * * 96L invest HanKFranK   Wed Sep 04 2002 02:56 PM
. * * 96L Invest in WGOM Cycloneye   Wed Sep 04 2002 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday troy2   Wed Sep 04 2002 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday squirralee   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday squirralee   Wed Sep 04 2002 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday StormHound   Wed Sep 04 2002 12:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Rasvar   Wed Sep 04 2002 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Mary K.   Wed Sep 04 2002 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 09:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 10:34 AM
. * * GOM LOW Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 10:51 AM
. * * complications HanKFranK   Wed Sep 04 2002 11:34 AM
. * * Re: complications Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 01:11 PM
. * * Re: complications Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 02:04 PM
. * * Re: complications Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:37 PM
. * * Re: complications caneman   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:42 PM
. * * Re: complications Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:58 PM
. * * Re: complications Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 02:05 PM
. * * Re: complications doug   Wed Sep 04 2002 12:17 PM
. * * Re: GOM LOW Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 11:22 AM
. * * Re: GOM LOW Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 11:38 AM
. * * planes GOM Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 11:59 AM
. * * Sean and Steve where are yall? Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Weakening? StormHound   Wed Sep 04 2002 09:59 AM
. * * Edouard has been a fighter Cycloneye   Wed Sep 04 2002 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Edouard has been a fighter Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Colleen A.   Wed Sep 04 2002 09:43 AM
. * * Morning Burst PFSThunder   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Morning Burst Jax Chris   Wed Sep 04 2002 09:32 AM
. * * GOM ShawnS   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:40 AM

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