Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida

First of all, check out the 10:45UTC Goes 12 IR. You're going to have to back it up a couple of frames to see.

Goes 12 IR

A face emerged in the eye - Sheep? Dog? Whale? You call it.

Having that out the way, you people in Coastal Mississippi and Coastal Alabama REALLY need to prepare for a major-league storm surge. The 06z ETA, GFS and other related models are out and have come around to my way of thinking. The storm is going to get very close to the Mouth of the MS and veer a bit N-NNE toward the Mississippi Coast. Whether the system is getting ragged or if we're in another eyewall replacement cycle should be a good indicator of how strong it's going to be at landfall. We're facing a threat of anywhere between a Cat 2 and a Cat 4 (most likely a low-mid 3 IMHO) at landfall. Due to the size of the storm, if I have the right ideas, nasty weather will be farther east all the way to possibly Seaside-Panama City Beach - especially watch out for torandic activity on the fringes east as always.
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I read Bastardi this morning. He's pretty sure it's going to come up to 89 or 88W though 90 is his western-most edge. He thinks there will be hurricane impacts for the Crescent City but notes that this isn't our doomsday scenario ala the hurricane of 1947 where a storm cutting ESE south of the city dumps the Gulf into the Lake and spills the Lake into the city. He sees (on his track) hurricane force north wind gusts, rain, flooding and other assorted problems, but this is not the same as the threat for Mobile if the storm comes up just west of there. Think MASSIVE water piling up into a funnel shaped bay. He also believes the storm will be somewhat slow moving and weakening at landfall. It may have Charley pressure, but not the same surprise impact. He cautioned that Mobile-Pensacola is vulnerable and he will not hesitate to change his ideas if he sees an actual path that is off of his ideas and further east, he will not hesitate to say so.
---------------------------------------------------- Hurricane force winds are expected roughly 100 miles either side of landfall and tropical storm winds are possible 200 miles either way. Therefore, a storm impacting Gulfport would have tropical storm force winds from lower Terrebonne & Lafourche Parishes in LA to just east of Panama City Beach.

This is shaping up to be a storm for all of us on the Northern Gulf Coast. Take care and get those precautions and final preps. I'm getting ready to take the old lady's car over to the tire store to get her some new wheels so she can cruise out to Memphis later this afternoon. As stated last night, I'll be hunkering in expecting some nasty but not destructive weather.

Steve

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