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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Post From Colleen from the previous thread
      Tue Sep 14 2004 11:44 AM

Normally I don't do this, but Colleen put considerable time and energy into this post...

If anyone looked at the picture they just showed on the Weather Channel, it certainly looked to be going NORTH at THAT PRECISE MOMENT IN TIME.
People are allowed to say what they see, and I don't think that meto was "wishcasting" anything.
As far as the storm not turning, at this point, I think that the NHC is becoming more confident in it's track and I do not think that Ivan will make a hard right and turn into Tampa Bay. That being said, today is Tuesday, landfall is supposed to occur around Thursday. That's 2 days away. I believe with Frances 2 days out they were forecasting it to possibly move up the coast of the Carolinas, and even some people here were agreeing with that forecast. The bottom line is this: Frances turned, Charley turned. When did they turn? Charley turned about 4 hours before he was supposed to hit Tampa. Frances turned and kept everyone on their toes for about 12 hours. I don't think it was until she almost made landfall that they were able to nail the precise place. Two days out, a little shove to the north, maybe a little bit of of turn to the east and the forecast changes again for a whole lot of people. I'm not say this is going to happen, I'm saying it's POSSIBLE. Hopefully, the models have a good handle on this thing right now and we're only 2 days away so I don't see a huge track shift coming in the future.
Tarpon---this is kind of ironic, but you posted about Dennis Phillips and how irresponsible his comments were last night. I watched him and he said "IF THIS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT CONTINUES, AND IT COULD BE JUST A JOG, THEN I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT". He was correct about the models not getting the new info because it had just started that trend. At 5:15pm, only two of the models had the new info and they DID swing it to the right. However, if you listened to him during the following hours, he corrected himself many times, as he was doing updates every 1/2 hour. I was watching the game and I saw him. At 12:something, he said it WAS JUST A JOG. I don't think he was being irresponsible. The reason I say it is ironic is because when I was on him about Frances, you were defending him as being one of the best out there. Go figure. Just like us, he saw the northward movement, too. Then it moved again to the NW.

I think all Floridians are a little uncomfortable and testy right now. We've been on STORM ALERT mode for over a month. Nerves are frayed, tempers are flaring and these things bring out the best and worst of us. We need to try and remember that when posting to one another. We're all in the same boat. I know I said a lot of prayers last night asking that this storm comes in well below a Cat 5 because after seeing two come directly over me, a Cat 1 isn't any fun either.

--------------------
Colleen A.

GO LIGHTNING!!!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms MikeCAdministrator Tue Sep 14 2004 11:44 AM
. * * Please let that be a jog Bloodstar   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Please let that be a jog FireAng85   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Please let that be a jog doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:30 PM
. * * 5:00 LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:34 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 Renee   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:08 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:15 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:03 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Please let that be a jog Bloodstar   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms Cane Watcher   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:09 PM
. * * Gravity Waves LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves Mongo   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:31 PM
. * * Atlanta Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Atlanta kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Atlanta Mozart   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Atlanta doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves Daytonaman   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:53 PM
. * * Water vapor ddrehman   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor ddrehman   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:07 PM
. * * Rick on the Boat rmbjoe1954   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Thunder   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:54 PM
. * * the 1:00 LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:46 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:48 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:50 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 luki   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:00 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 luki   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:22 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:25 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:29 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 luki   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:09 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 lilyv   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat storm chaser   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat FireAng85   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:14 PM
. * * Ivan's new path LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path FireAng85   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:56 PM
. * * JEANNE LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE Kent   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:14 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:16 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:22 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE St. David   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE Fletch   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:13 PM
. * * Ivan's Slowdown Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Rasvar   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Kent   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Thunder   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Ed in Va   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Ed in Va   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:33 PM
. * * The Cone Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:39 PM
. * * Just to right of prediction Ed in Va   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction Thunder   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction lilyv   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction Fletch   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Just checking in... Steve   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction GENIE   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:01 PM
. * * looking at the water vapor loop..... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... GENIE   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:27 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... lilyv   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:17 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... Steve   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:28 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:04 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction trinibaje   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown RevUp   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Rasvar   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:26 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path AgentB   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path eulogia   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path aliehs   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path belleami   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path schmoo   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path ShanaTX   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:47 PM
. * * JBs just full of good news this afternoon LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:00 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon AgentB   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat clueless   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:45 PM
. * * Ivan and the Dreaded Cone rmbjoe1954   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Rasvar   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat eulogia   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:08 PM
. * * Tired of Lurking Part 2 poetdi   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Thunder   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor bella   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Jeanne turning West? Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:43 PM
. * * FL Threats Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:43 PM
. * * Re: FL Threats Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re: FL Threats Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:06 PM
. * * Re: FL Threats Rasvar   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:28 PM
. * * Re: FL Threats kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves Cane Watcher   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:43 AM
. * * Tampa Bay NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Tampa Bay NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook okiherdu   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Post From Colleen from the previous thread LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread Tampa Joe   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread ROB IN PA   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread ROB IN PA   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread mlamay   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread davet   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms VandyBrad   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 PM
. * * gestational diabetes tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Re: gestational diabetes LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms MO stormspotter   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:17 AM

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