nrl has an invest on the gulf system. it is initialized as a 25kt/1012mb system at 27.5/94. of course this it is clearly very broad and will probably be one of those multiple-center systems as it organizes due to the broad envelope and the spread of clustered convection. but yeah, be interesting what recon can find. probably a slow mover.
edouard is going ashore later today if it keeps the westerly jog up. the convection hasnt peeled away like yesterday during the day.. and the less vicious shear is ahead on edouard's path. so i can see it getting into the gulf late in the week. to complicate things the center is tracking due west, which if continued would keep it over land longer and emerge it in apalachee bay, only to skim the panhandle (expect more erratic motion). how well edouard survives the crossing of florida is another issue. and then whatever is developing further west adds another layer to the problem. one interesting possibility: two active named systems in the gulf. though edouard will probably not arrive at tropical storm strength.
cc you mentioned the system the 95L is passing to the north of. i dont think it looks as good in terms of the strength of its circulation, though, if the passage of 95L doesnt disrupt it will be in a better place to cause trouble. 95L itself is going to hit pass under the ridge upstream of dolly's demise and intensify to a named system, then start getting ripped at by whatever is left of the trough. considering how strong the westerlies are across most of the basin i wouldnt expect much of 95L in terms of threat. should it play chicken with the shear jet though, i wouldnt totally discount it.
heads up flagler county, here comes edouard. in other words, enjoy the rain squalls.
fay and gustav probably around the corner. maybe even hanna.
HF 1851z04september
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