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#Sam heading NW still a Major and Bermuda should watch. Elsewhere, fish spinning persists from a very active Main Development Region.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nicholas) , Major: 29 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1083 (Michael) Major: 1083 (Michael)
17.2N 53.9W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 953mb
Moving:
Nw at 9 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Just checking in...
      Tue Sep 14 2004 04:11 PM

I've got most everything done that I'm going to do. That consisted of bringing in about 10 bikes, some toys, scooters, balls, hoses and such. I'd estimate that 75-80% of my neighborhood has evacuated. I haven't seen anything taken this seriously since Georges, so obviously in Old Metairie, the folks did what the felt they needed to. I have a theory (that I think holds) that whenever there is a recent & devastating storm, people think twice about staying. Frances (flooding) then the mass evacuation for Georges, Alex/Charley/Frances and Ivan. I'm pretty excited about Ivan. I don't know what it has in store for me, but I'm ready for the action. Today's been kind of weird. It's a mixed sky right now with a nice breeze around 12-15 gusting to 18-20 from time to time - mostly out of the E and ENE. The temperature is in the mid 80's. That really shows how big Ivan is. Often when a compact storm is 250 miles away, the weather can be hot and still (calm before the storm stuff). But that's not the feel today. My expectations are a cross between what New Orleans got from Florence (88 I think), Andrew (92) and Georges (98). Put together, that's probably a few inches of rain (more with a landfall closer to me), some sustained winds in the 30's and 40's with some gusts into the 50's and 60's, blown transformers, downed limbs and scattered power and cable outages - you know, a good beer drinking partying kind of storm. I could be wrong (and I hope I'm not, heh) but I'm looking forward to the ride. The traffic has been horrendous in the city as everyone hit the highways this morning. My kids are en route to Memphis, and my wife is sleeping and should be heading up there later this evening after she gets some sleep. I've gotten a few "Woooo" calls from old hurricane buddies who wanted to know my excitement level amidst all the freaking going on. I guess that means people to party with over the next few days

The last several frames show alternating N and NNW movements - I'd guess the storm was averaging 340ish in the short term after a westerly jog this morning. Without doing the math, Ivan seems to be stair-stepping around 320-330 (NN+W essentially) . Prayers and well wishes to everyone with property, peeps, ties or whatever from lower Plaquemines Parish, LA to Panama City. Hopefully the just west of Mobile scenario doesn't pan out. That's similar to our doomsday of a storm riding toward the WNW south of the city (as JB noted today - the one that makes N.O. the Gulf via Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Borne. We'll see that again someday, but not this time.

A JB quick note on Jeanne. In his backing pattern theory, Jeanne (if she encouters a ridge building in behind Ivan as some of the models are now alluding to) becomes a potential player for the Western Gulf by 3-6 degrees west of Ivan's landfall. That theory requires her to wait for the Ivan mess to clear and then head on W (he had it between FL and Cuba, but that was just a telestrator drawing and wasn't emphasized as much as the idea that it could mirror the Isidore-Lili 1-2 Gulf Cat 4's from 2002 based on uncannily similar water temperature profiles.

I'll check in from time to time. Good luck to all and a shout out to Frank P. My bet is by the time he's back online, he rates in the Top 3 as measured by the seawall and Beach Blvd.

Woohoo!

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms MikeCAdministrator Tue Sep 14 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Please let that be a jog Bloodstar   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Please let that be a jog FireAng85   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Please let that be a jog doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:30 PM
. * * 5:00 LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:34 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 Renee   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:08 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:15 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:03 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Please let that be a jog Bloodstar   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms Cane Watcher   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:09 PM
. * * Gravity Waves LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves Mongo   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:31 PM
. * * Atlanta Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Atlanta kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Atlanta Mozart   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Atlanta doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves Daytonaman   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:53 PM
. * * Water vapor ddrehman   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor ddrehman   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:07 PM
. * * Rick on the Boat rmbjoe1954   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Thunder   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:54 PM
. * * the 1:00 LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:46 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:48 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:50 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 luki   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:00 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 luki   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:22 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:25 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:29 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 luki   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:09 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 lilyv   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat storm chaser   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat FireAng85   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:14 PM
. * * Ivan's new path LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path FireAng85   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:56 PM
. * * JEANNE LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE Kent   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:14 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:16 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:22 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE St. David   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE Fletch   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:13 PM
. * * Ivan's Slowdown Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Rasvar   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Kent   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Thunder   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Ed in Va   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Ed in Va   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:33 PM
. * * The Cone Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:39 PM
. * * Just to right of prediction Ed in Va   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction Thunder   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction lilyv   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction Fletch   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Just checking in... Steve   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction GENIE   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:01 PM
. * * looking at the water vapor loop..... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... GENIE   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:27 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... lilyv   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:17 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... Steve   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:28 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:04 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction trinibaje   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown RevUp   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Rasvar   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:26 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path AgentB   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path eulogia   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path aliehs   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path belleami   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path schmoo   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path ShanaTX   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:47 PM
. * * JBs just full of good news this afternoon LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:00 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon AgentB   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat clueless   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:45 PM
. * * Ivan and the Dreaded Cone rmbjoe1954   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Rasvar   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat eulogia   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:08 PM
. * * Tired of Lurking Part 2 poetdi   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Thunder   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor bella   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Jeanne turning West? Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:43 PM
. * * FL Threats Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:43 PM
. * * Re: FL Threats Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re: FL Threats Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:06 PM
. * * Re: FL Threats Rasvar   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:28 PM
. * * Re: FL Threats kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves Cane Watcher   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:43 AM
. * * Tampa Bay NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Tampa Bay NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook okiherdu   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Post From Colleen from the previous thread LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread Tampa Joe   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread ROB IN PA   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread ROB IN PA   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread mlamay   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread davet   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms VandyBrad   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 PM
. * * gestational diabetes tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Re: gestational diabetes LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms MO stormspotter   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:17 AM

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