First, the trough that was near Memphis the other day, is lifting out nicely, but it almost seems as if a small piece broke off into the Gulf, which was responsible for the dry air, and the fact that it never curved back to the NW.
Second, a strong upper level disturbance just crossed through Salt Lake City, and a strong trough is moving into the Rockies. This will be the next system to help draw up the storm I believe. There is also strong jet energy rounding the base of that trough. I can't rule out the possibilty it curls back towards the NW a little due to the piece of energy in the Gulf, but I don't think it will be a major move. The arguement against that is that it appears to be moving north on the last few frames, which wouldn't be expected in this scenario. The next trough seems to be coming in pretty quickly as well.
I am concerned about post-landfall also, as it may get stuck in the Appalachians, and a strong SE upslope flow is not needed in the already-flood-ravaged areas. The GFS puts out almost 4" of rain where I am in NJ, and I won't be close to it.
I hope this isn't another Allison, which was not much of a storm, but got stuck of Ga. and wreaked all kinds of flooding havoc. It also got stuck.
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