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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 284 (Idalia) , Major: 284 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 284 (Idalia) Major: 284 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 1710
Jeanne
      Wed Sep 15 2004 01:17 AM

First, let's look at Jeanne (Ivan in the next post). I've been eating crow here at FSU with this one -- I didn't figure this would have a shot, but it's defied my predictions. That said, it's got some landmasses in its way, including the Dominican. It is looking rather well organized tonight and might become a hurricane in the next day or so if it can miss Puerto Rico and the Dominican.

Track -- unless a trough well to the north of Bermuda continues to dive, it won't pick up Jeanne. All it may do is weaken the steering currents a bit, but that's not even a given. In the short term, Jeanne should continue moving just north of due west around the subtropical ridge. On this course, it might just nick the SW tip of Puerto Rico (thanks ShaggyDude!) and will likely pass over the island of Hispaniola, if only on the north side.

The ultimate track will be the key to the storm's survival, as though I don't see shear increasing too much, the favorable upper-level diffluence will likely weaken just a tad and the wind field with the system is small and tight. If it gets disrupted by the mountains of Hispaniola, it might sound a death knell for this storm -- or at least substantially weaken it -- which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Afterward, the storm should continue moving in a general WNW fashion to the central Bahamas in about 4-5 days, where it should be near the end of the subtropical ridge. Problem is, there really won't be a trough to pick it up. Ivan looks to stall out over the central Applachians and create sort of a blocking effect -- a Rex block -- where it sits below a high and disrupts the overall steering flow. Troughs can lift up and around the block, but Jeanne will be too far south in all likelihood to feel these effects. A slow, gradual WNW movement beyond 4-5 days can be expected, not unlike Frances.

The saving grace for Florida might be Ivan, as ultimately it should begin to move out to sea in 6-7 days. The trough it leaves behind in its wake as it transitions into an extratropical system (assuming, of course, it doesn't completely die out over the mountains) might be enough to swing and pick up Jeanne, sending it to the north. With the slow forward motion expected at that time, it could be enough to spare the entire United States. However, it is way too early to make that call and right now, at 6/7 days out, it's 50/50 for either scenario. People from Cape Hatteras south to Key West need to watch this one.

Intensity should be held somewhat in check by the small wind field interacting with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas, though the storm should reach hurricane intensity in the next day or so before then. It will have a chance at regaining some strength after leaving Hispaniola, but as it moves further into the Bahamas, cold upwelling from Frances combined with shallow waters (not as much energy) should keep intensification in check.

As an aside, the storms we have had near shore this year should help to keep anything else on the horizon from affecting the mainland with as much force just due to coastal upwelling of shallow waters, at least in the next few weeks. I don't want to sound the bell for the season after Ivan and Jeanne for the U.S., but the peak is behind us and there is only so many storms that the basin can handle in the same location. The chances after these storms of a significant U.S. impact dwindle pretty greatly -- but do *not* go away -- once they get out of the way. That doesn't diminish in any way what they have done, however.

1 day position: along the southern coast of Puerto Rico near 18.5°N and 66-66.5°W, 65-70kt hurricane
3 day position: just north of Hispaniola near 20°N 71°W 50-55kt tropical storm
5 day position: central Bahamas near 23°N 75°W 60kt tropical storm.
This isn't too far off of the NHC position and intensity, except a bit further south and a tad slower at days 4 and 5 and weaker due to interaction with landmasses.

Ivan coming up...

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

Edited by Clark (Wed Sep 15 2004 01:24 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 15 2004 01:17 AM
. * * Note on Ivan Clark   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:20 AM
. * * Radar from Tampa clyde w.   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:00 AM
. * * Re: Radar from Tampa Elaine H   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:18 AM
. * * Ivan - Doppler Radar Fixes berrywr   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico alliecat   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico ALLIECAT   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:27 AM
. * * Evacuation Terra   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:39 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Clark   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico alliecat   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Bioman   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico LI Phil   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:27 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Clark   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:12 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico OZ IN FL   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:25 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico LI Phil   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:30 AM
. * * Shades of Opal... Mongo   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:42 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico troy   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico OZ IN FL   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:35 AM
. * * First Ivan Wind Field map SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:56 AM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map mbfly   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:15 AM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map Justin in Miami   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:32 AM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map LI Phil   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:19 AM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:36 AM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map tenavilla   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:12 AM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:20 AM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:37 AM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map belleami   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:49 AM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map Clark   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:28 AM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map Bruce   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:34 AM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map Storm Cooper   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:01 AM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map dani   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:02 AM
. * * New Orleans? SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:10 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico spook   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico spook   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Robin   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Here we go again! SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico ShaggyDude   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:41 AM
. * * jeanne too...to FL and Puerto Rico LoisCane   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Buoy action picking up Mozart   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Thunder   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:36 PM
. * * Jeanne Clark   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne Rasvar   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:08 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne Clark   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:20 AM
. * * I need to vent a little.... MrSpock   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:35 AM
. * * Re: I need to vent a little.... Clark   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:40 AM
. * * Re: I need to vent a little.... MrSpock   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:48 AM
. * * Re: I need to vent a little.... LI Phil   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:50 AM
. * * Re: I need to vent a little.... LI Phil   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:39 AM
. * * Re: IVAN Rad   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:27 AM
. * * Ivan Clark   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Justin in Miami   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne Keith234   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:25 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne Elaine H   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:28 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:32 AM
. * * Prayer Sadie   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Historic event? Tropics Guy   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up mud1967   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Beach   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up mud1967   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Lisa NC   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up LI Phil   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Lisa NC   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:18 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up richisurfs   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Keith234   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Keith234   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:19 AM
. * * Buoy Data - Ivan berrywr   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Buoy Data - Ivan Keith234   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:05 AM
. * * Recon reports mbfly   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:37 AM
. * * Odds and Ends Justin in Miami   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:25 AM
. * * Re: Recon reports Lisa NC   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Recon reports Storm Cooper   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:44 AM
. * * HELLO!!! SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:51 AM
. * * Re: HELLO!!! k___g   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:53 AM
. * * Re: HELLO!!! sullynole   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:52 AM
. * * Re: HELLO!!! gonyen   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:59 AM
. * * Re: HELLO!!! MrSpock   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:53 AM
. * * Winds SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Winds MrSpock   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Winds Keith234   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Winds dani   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:34 AM
. * * Frank P .... decisions ... decisions Frank P   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:36 AM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions Justin in Miami   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:58 AM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions Kent   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions spook   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:55 AM
. * * New Advisory is Out - Pressure Rising Kdubs   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:50 AM
. * * Sorry - Here's the discussion too *DELETED* Kdubs   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:51 AM
. * * My thoughts for the day Kdubs   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:04 AM
. * * Re: Situation in New Orleans N.O. Lurker   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:59 AM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day LI Phil   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:15 AM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day Elaine H   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:06 AM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day spook   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:16 AM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day Girlnascar   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:29 AM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:24 AM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day RevUp   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:26 AM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day Clark   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:22 AM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day LI Phil   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:19 AM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day Bioman   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:06 AM
. * * Re: buoy 42003 sullynole   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:13 AM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day Kdubs   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:11 AM
. * * Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too StormHound   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:59 AM
. * * Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too LI Phil   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too StormHound   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:10 AM
. * * Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too StormHound   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:15 AM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions Clark   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:42 AM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions MrSpock   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:39 AM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions Girlnascar   Wed Sep 15 2004 03:15 AM
. * * Re: Recon reports Keith234   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:41 AM
. * * ReI'sa Ready I hope javlin   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:29 AM
. * * CAT 5? SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Keith234   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Elaine H   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up clueless   Wed Sep 15 2004 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up OrlandoDan   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:25 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up LI Phil   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Redbird   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:34 AM
. * * Thank you redbird LI Phil   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up gonyen   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:18 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up mud1967   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Elaine H   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up gonyen   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up richisurfs   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Winds... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up palmetto   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up BillD   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Where........... FireAng85   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Where........... lilyv   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:33 PM
. * * Re: Where........... andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Where........... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Rubber Ducky   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Where........... mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Where........... gonyen   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Where........... andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Where........... gonyen   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Where........... belleami   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Where........... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:34 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Steve   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Where........... dani   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Where........... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:27 PM
. * * explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil LoisCane   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:32 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:38 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil Redbird   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil Bruce   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:13 AM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil Redbird   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:16 AM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil anonymous   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil Lisa NC   Wed Sep 15 2004 12:14 AM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Where........... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Where........... mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Where........... lcdrgas   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Where........... J Mark   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:35 AM
. * * Re: Where........... Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:36 PM
. * * A little OT -- but applies to evac areas... Allison   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Where........... MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Where........... SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Where........... danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Where........... lilyv   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:52 PM
. * * GO NOW! LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:01 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:15 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:10 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! Redbird   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:55 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! J Mark   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:12 AM
. * * Re: GO NOW! Hookd   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:37 AM
. * * Re: GO NOW! Clark   Wed Sep 15 2004 02:48 AM
. * * Re: GO NOW! LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:13 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:26 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:07 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Where? Maybe Pass Christian LoisCane   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:44 PM
. * * convince me to leave as well Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Where........... SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Where........... HCW   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Where........... CentralFlorida   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Where........... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:00 PM
. * * One thing to watch.... wxman007   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:59 PM
. * * Re: One thing to watch.... ShanaTX   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:59 PM
. * * Got it LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Got it MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:39 PM
. * * Thomas Email WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:48 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:33 PM
. * * Re: Where........... No More Than Me   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:29 PM

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