Bobbi -- there's no good scenario here, I'm afraid. The only scenario that would be good is the Roxanne 1995 scenario, but I can't see that happening well offshore.
The FSU Superensemble is reasonably in line with much of the rest of the model guidance, as noted by the NHC, and is more or less what the NHC official track is based upon.
Just a note on the warm eddy referenced in the thread starter...it is moreso an impact on the depth of the warm waters as opposed to warmer water. Much of the water over the central Gulf is in the mid 80s, +/- a degree or so from 86°F. However, the depth of this warm water is important in hurricane intensification, as recent studies have shown. In the region where the storm is now and especially close to shore, the depth is not very deep...~100ft, if that in some places. However, near the warm eddy, waters under the surface are warm to much greater depths, ~150-250ft. In regions further to the west, they are a bit deeper than that.
While a few tens to a hundred feet may not seem significant, it really is in terms of a storm maintaining intensity (or weakening/strengthening). It's but one of many factors into intensity forecasting, but will play a key role here.
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