Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Ivan heading on schedule, just alittle faster then what was forcasted by the NHC. Ivan should continue with its NNW movement into tomorrow with a more N turn and maybe NNE just a few hours before landfall tomorrow night. I think they will though move up the landfall some. The upper level westerly flow will start to affect Ivan later in the afternoon on weds. This will cause a shift to the NNE and NE after landfall and movement will be under 10mph during the day. Landfall is still projected near Biloxi and the worst weather will be there- Mobile. Winds will be around 120-130mph a Cat 3 but outside of the barrier islands winds will be closer to 100mph on the inner eye wall with gusts higher. I expect a slow movement up to the App mts. It could stall out for a day or 2 before slowly lifting off to the NE later Sunday into Monday. Currently the flow is very weak as the ridge over the bahamas has backed into florida. There is considerable dry air over the Se U.S. and Florida. There is a severe line of TS off the coast of Florida and could move into FT Myers thru the coastal Tampa area by Sunrise. This same band should come up to the Appalachie bay area- Panama City coastal areas near the same time. I expect massive amount of tornados to be spawned in these outerbands and inland as the storm approaches and moves inland. This will continue thru Friday and being sparatic on Sat. Storm surge Im still expecting around 8-10 ft just to the east of the center, especially Mobile Bay-Pensocola areas with lower amounts farther east. West central florida will also recieve up to 4 ft above normal during high tide Weds afternoon. Rain fall amounts should be around 6-12 inches around and east of the center with lesser amounts to the west and east of Panama city where they could get up to 6 inches with locally higher amounts. Expect power outages for extended periods throughout LA to Panama city areas, but to a less degree in NO.
Jeanne continues to look better from earlier this evening. Some dry air to its west is slowly moistening up. Better convection on the S side of her continues to improve. Motion has been roughly 290dg at 5kt over the last 6 hrs. Expect a general W to WNW motion to skim the southern coast of Puerto Rico and possibly coming onshore the NE part of Dominica on Thurs morning. Currently Hurricane warnings are out for Puerto Rico and Jeanne could be upgrade to it sometime during the day Weds. Now its unclear if it will move into Dominican Republic or skimm the north coast,,,,never the less a downgrade to TS status will happen on Thursday unless it moves NW to avoid landfall or skims the island. Hard to pinpoint this right now. Movement should continue to the WNW towards the Turks on Friday into Saturday, and I expect it to regain hurricane status later on Saturday. Right now my 3 day forcast has it just east of the Turks by Friday evening. After that the long range shows 2 possibilities. 1 most models show it moving NNW to east of Grand Bahama by late sunday into monday and stalling out as heights rise to its north with a very strong ridge forcasting to move into the midatlantic states. How strong is the key to the movement next week towards florida,,,w or wnw from there. 2nd possibility is Jeanne stay more s and move just north of Cuba along the coast and south of Abaco and nearing the keys by Monday into Tuesday, it could then move more NW into the extreme SE gulf and threaten the SW coast of florida or continue more W into the S-Central gulf,,,,,,wayyy to early to tell if it even does the 2nd scenerio. Pretty much its a wait and see and first thing is first,,how much interaction with the Dominican Republic is the starter.

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