** WTNT44 KNHC 151427 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION CONCLUDED AT 12Z...AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT WILL BE ARRIVING MOMENTARILY. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 127 KT DURING THE LAST PASS SUPPORT ABOUT 115 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE 50 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. COMPETING INFLUENCES MAKE THE INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT. THE HURRICANE IS NOW PASSING OVER A WARM GULF EDDY WHICH COULD AID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH DATA COLLECTED BY A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY SUGGEST THE EDDY MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT USING SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE WEST SEMICIRCLE THAT COULD STILL PENETRATE THE CORE...AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT I EXPECT SOME NET WEAKENING OF IVAN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/11...AND IVAN LOOKS TO BE MAKING THE EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN. IVAN REMAINS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST... ALTHOUGH THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A BIT FASTER TO THE COASTLINE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UNTIL WELL AFTER LANDFALL...WHERE THERE ARE A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLOODING EVENT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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