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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 286 (Idalia) , Major: 286 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 286 (Idalia) Major: 286 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Kevin
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
The tropics today.
      Thu Sep 05 2002 08:47 PM

Late yesterday it looked like what is now TD6 and what is left of Edouard would be all to watch for a while. Not the case at all today...
Edoaurd is now a mostly convectionless low pressure area, going to get blasted by nasty shear and TD6 until he finally dies in SE Louisiana this weekend. Not much weather out of this one in Nawlins'...okay, I'll just say New Orleans.

TD6: This one isn't spinning up quickly but because of the fact it will basically just sit where it is at until Saturday or possibly beyond the GOMEX will get a lot of rain out of this. Should make landfall as strong tropical storm. 60 knots is my intensity at this point. We are still looking for that first hurricane...doesn't look like this will be it.

Area ENE of Leewards: Too far north even though it may develop eventually. The chances of this one reaching the US are real slim at best. It may not even develop. The way this year has been I wouldn't even MENTION a depression forming until a disturbance is almost at that point. The shear has been difficult to forecast this year...don't count on anything.

Wave coming off of Africa looks very good at this time and already has a 1011 mb low pressure center with it. The models do like this one and develop it further west. The weirdness of this 2002 season has me worried about this one...
This has been a slow season so far but yet we are on the verge of having 6 named storm...we will probably have 10 or 11 this. We may only have 2-4 hurricanes this year but because we've only had weak little storm around, the energy is going to be released somehow. The wave comming off of Africa really concerns me. As weak as this season has been...it is only September 5th even though it feels more like October 25th. I'm afraid all it is going to take it one storm this year...that's it. The high pressure pattern has been perfect for a major EC landfalling year but we've had no storms to threaten. Dolly could have but pulled that trick the last minute and managed to recurve. Given the pattern set-up, don't be surprised to see a bad storm come around soon and remind everybody that we are still in September and that the season is far from over. This year just has a weird feel to it.

Any thoughts?

Kevin

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday CFHCAdministrator Thu Sep 05 2002 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Joe   Thu Sep 05 2002 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 08:30 PM
. * * Link to Data Bouy Cocoa Beach   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:06 PM
. * * Also... Kevin   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Also... Rasvar   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Also... caneman   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:23 PM
. * * GOM Low Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 06:06 PM
. * * Re: GOM Low ShawnS   Wed Sep 04 2002 06:14 PM
. * * Re: GOM Low Frank P   Wed Sep 04 2002 07:00 PM
. * * Re: GOM Low doug   Wed Sep 04 2002 07:18 PM
. * * Gulf Low - note from Accuweather... Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low - note from Accuweather... Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low - 12Z GFDL out... Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 07:50 PM
. * * Look out Central Florida (where I live!) Kevin   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Look out Central Florida (where I live!) Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Look out Central Florida (where I live!) Mary K.   Wed Sep 04 2002 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Look out Central Florida (where I live!) Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 03:39 AM
. * * feebs HanKFranK   Thu Sep 05 2002 03:53 AM
. * * NW Orange County Alan   Wed Sep 04 2002 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Look out Central Florida (where I live!) Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Look out Central Florida (where I live!) Floridacane   Wed Sep 04 2002 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Look out Central Florida (where I live!) Steve777   Wed Sep 04 2002 09:24 PM
. * * FLOOD WARNING WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Sep 04 2002 09:32 PM
. * * FLOODING WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Sep 04 2002 09:49 PM
. * * Probabilities update Frank P   Wed Sep 04 2002 10:05 PM
. * * another slowdown HanKFranK   Wed Sep 04 2002 10:18 PM
. * * Weather now in SW Seminole County, Florida Kevin   Wed Sep 04 2002 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Weather now in SW Seminole County, Florida Kevin   Wed Sep 04 2002 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Weather now in SW Seminole County, Florida Mary K.   Wed Sep 04 2002 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Weather now in SW Seminole County, Florida Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:44 AM
. * * GFDL 18Z - 2 Texas Hits? 3? Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 01:17 AM
. * * Re: GFDL 18Z - 2 Texas Hits? 3? Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 01:33 AM
. * * Steve ShawnS   Thu Sep 05 2002 01:56 AM
. * * GOM Development/Edouard Update Jason M   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:00 AM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 03:26 AM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 03:54 AM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 05:34 AM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update ShawnS   Thu Sep 05 2002 11:21 AM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 11:40 AM
. * * gulf/95L/second HanKFranK   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:33 PM
. * * WAY TO GO HANKFRANK Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 01:07 PM
. * * Re: WAY TO GO HANKFRANK caneman   Thu Sep 05 2002 01:45 PM
. * * Re: WAY TO GO HANKFRANK Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:09 PM
. * * Re: WAY TO GO HANKFRANK Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:04 PM
. * * Re: WAY TO GO HANKFRANK caneman   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:09 PM
. * * Re: WAY TO GO HANKFRANK tom5r   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:28 PM
. * * Re: WAY TO GO HANKFRANK caneman   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:12 PM
. * * Re: WAY TO GO HANKFRANK Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:30 PM
. * * Back to the tropics Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Back to the tropics Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Back to the tropics caneman   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:45 PM
. * * Center trying to form? Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Center trying to form? J.J.   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Center trying to form? troy2   Thu Sep 05 2002 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Center trying to form? Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Center trying to form? Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Center trying to form? J.J.   Thu Sep 05 2002 08:02 PM
. * * TD# 6 Is Formed Mike   Thu Sep 05 2002 08:07 PM
. * * Re: TD# 6 Is Formed HanKFranK   Thu Sep 05 2002 08:18 PM
. * * The tropics today. Kevin   Thu Sep 05 2002 08:47 PM
. * * GREAT RADAR WEBSITE WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 05 2002 09:00 PM
. * * The shear monster Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 09:18 PM
. * * Re: The shear monster caneman   Thu Sep 05 2002 09:25 PM
. * * Re: The shear monster Joe   Thu Sep 05 2002 10:10 PM
. * * Typos Kevin   Thu Sep 05 2002 08:52 PM
. * * Hey Cycloneye... Steve   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:23 PM
. * * Hey Steve Cycloneye   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:48 PM
. * * NW GOM Rich B   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:54 PM
. * * Model runs Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Model runs Steve   Thu Sep 05 2002 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Model runs Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Model runs Steve   Thu Sep 05 2002 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Model runs Steve   Thu Sep 05 2002 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Model runs Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Model runs Steve   Thu Sep 05 2002 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Model runs Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 07:06 PM
. * * Summary of atlantic tropics Cycloneye   Thu Sep 05 2002 03:50 PM
. * * Bothered to log in again and I GET HIT WITH EDOUARD! Steve   Thu Sep 05 2002 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Bothered to log in again and I GET HIT WITH EDOUARD! Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:04 PM
. * * commentary HanKFranK   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:32 PM
. * * HF... Steve   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:34 PM
. * * WOW NW GOM looking VERY mpressive Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Back to the tropics Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:43 PM
. * * Back to the Gulf Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:09 PM
. * * Northwest Gom.. Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 02:03 PM
. * * Re: gulf/95L/second Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:42 PM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update Frank P   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:10 PM
. * * Corpus Buoy Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:19 PM
. * * Fay & The European Model... Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:19 PM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update ShawnS   Thu Sep 05 2002 12:01 PM
. * * Re: GOM Development/Edouard Update Anonymous   Thu Sep 05 2002 05:32 AM
. * * Re: Weather now in SW Seminole County, Florida Mary K.   Wed Sep 04 2002 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Weather now in SW Seminole County, Florida Chad   Wed Sep 04 2002 10:36 PM
. * * Hey Kevin! Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Hey Kevin! Floridacane   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Low - note from Accuweather... Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 07:49 PM
. * * Thanks Cy-eye... Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 07:10 PM
. * * 96L invest HanKFranK   Wed Sep 04 2002 06:56 PM
. * * 96L Invest in WGOM Cycloneye   Wed Sep 04 2002 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday troy2   Wed Sep 04 2002 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday squirralee   Thu Sep 05 2002 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday squirralee   Wed Sep 04 2002 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday StormHound   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Rasvar   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Mary K.   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 02:34 PM
. * * GOM LOW Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 02:51 PM
. * * complications HanKFranK   Wed Sep 04 2002 03:34 PM
. * * Re: complications Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 05:11 PM
. * * Re: complications Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 06:04 PM
. * * Re: complications Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:37 PM
. * * Re: complications caneman   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:42 PM
. * * Re: complications Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 08:58 PM
. * * Re: complications Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 06:05 PM
. * * Re: complications doug   Wed Sep 04 2002 04:17 PM
. * * Re: GOM LOW Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 03:22 PM
. * * Re: GOM LOW Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 03:38 PM
. * * planes GOM Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 03:59 PM
. * * Sean and Steve where are yall? Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Weakening? StormHound   Wed Sep 04 2002 01:59 PM
. * * Edouard has been a fighter Cycloneye   Wed Sep 04 2002 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Edouard has been a fighter Anonymous   Wed Sep 04 2002 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday Colleen A.   Wed Sep 04 2002 01:43 PM
. * * Morning Burst PFSThunder   Wed Sep 04 2002 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Morning Burst Jax Chris   Wed Sep 04 2002 01:32 PM
. * * GOM ShawnS   Wed Sep 04 2002 12:40 PM

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