Tropical Storm Edouard Wednesday

Late yesterday it looked like what is now TD6 and what is left of Edouard would be all to watch for a while. Not the case at all today...
Edoaurd is now a mostly convectionless low pressure area, going to get blasted by nasty shear and TD6 until he finally dies in SE Louisiana this weekend. Not much weather out of this one in Nawlins'...okay, I'll just say New Orleans.

TD6: This one isn't spinning up quickly but because of the fact it will basically just sit where it is at until Saturday or possibly beyond the GOMEX will get a lot of rain out of this. Should make landfall as strong tropical storm. 60 knots is my intensity at this point. We are still looking for that first hurricane...doesn't look like this will be it.

Area ENE of Leewards: Too far north even though it may develop eventually. The chances of this one reaching the US are real slim at best. It may not even develop. The way this year has been I wouldn't even MENTION a depression forming until a disturbance is almost at that point. The shear has been difficult to forecast this year...don't count on anything.

Wave coming off of Africa looks very good at this time and already has a 1011 mb low pressure center with it. The models do like this one and develop it further west. The weirdness of this 2002 season has me worried about this one...
This has been a slow season so far but yet we are on the verge of having 6 named storm...we will probably have 10 or 11 this. We may only have 2-4 hurricanes this year but because we've only had weak little storm around, the energy is going to be released somehow. The wave comming off of Africa really concerns me. As weak as this season has been...it is only September 5th even though it feels more like October 25th. I'm afraid all it is going to take it one storm this year...that's it. The high pressure pattern has been perfect for a major EC landfalling year but we've had no storms to threaten. Dolly could have but pulled that trick the last minute and managed to recurve. Given the pattern set-up, don't be surprised to see a bad storm come around soon and remind everybody that we are still in September and that the season is far from over. This year just has a weird feel to it.

Any thoughts?

Kevin

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