Fay has a 1000mb low pressure to her and is located Sw of the area that frank just posted, center he sees is the mid level low. Great observations he has on the systems out there. I like to see his posts. Alot of good info.
Anyways, fay still very elongated and moving eraticly with a slow w movement to come onshore about 50 miles Sw of galvestine island as a moderate TS early saturday. Plenty of moisture and moderate winds in squalls and she moves onshore.Expect brief tornados in the squal lines.Rainfall up to 6-8 inches near the center of landfall and the track of Fay. Also 2 other systems to note, the first one briefly has a low center to it off the african coast, it could be a TD by later in the weekend moving just n of due west. The other and more importantly my earlier call on the first Huricane of the season should be forming ENE of the Bahamas near 27N and 71W. Most models form this into a depression by Sunday morning, infact recon by Sunday might find it a Tropical storm which then should be a hurricane by Monday. I expect winds to increase as high as 100-110 mph closing in on a Cat 3 by Tues morning. Models at first showed a west track into fl and the gulf, then turned around to a N then w turn to threaten the carolinas. Hard to figure out this one where the center is not exactly pinpointed yet. A huge ridge as forcasted wil come down early next week and push the hurricane off to the west and should make the eastern US under hurricane watches. The forcast is very hard here and is up in the air. As we can see it 2 things can happen. 1 He forms around the above cor and moves slightly nw into early next week to near 29-30N and 74 W and becomes a hurricane later on Monday. The ridge builds in stronger and pushes him W to the S carolina coast. The Ridge can also build in alittle quicker and stronger and push the hurricane more W and just S of there threatening the same area as Eduardo. 2 things can happen and also exactly where the center forms and how strong and fast the ridge to his NW builds in. Update more on Sat or Sunday on this, scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter,,,,,,, my person site is back on. Alot of good discussion pages and model input.
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