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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Anonymous
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Tracker...
      Sat Sep 07 2002 03:37 AM

Fay's history is to spawn it's convection with a minor burst after midnight with the real pulse up coming between 5-7am. Rainfall amounts are really starting to pop just off the coast. There is a 'worm' of 12-15" moving closer to the coast between Victoria and Galveston if I've got my TX coastal cities right.

Due to relentless shear, most of the convection tonight is well north of the circulation. This doesn't really bode well for the UT Coast if Fay eventually decides on a WNW-NW track. It's worse if she stalls longer than expected. NHC has delayed landfall by 12 hours since yesterday. I never thought Fay would move in overnight tonight to begin with, but they have to go with what the consensus of the modes and their forecasters come up with.

In any event, it looks like the initial threat is from just SE of Houston southward. I'm sure overall there will be plenty of 5-10" amounts. But there will be more than just an isolated 15-25" when it's all said and done.

On the IR loop you provided, it almost looks like the center is between 96 and 97, but that could easily be a trick of the IR.

Anyway, sounds like an exciting time in Texas. Wish I was there. It's cloudy and breezy here tonight. I miight go grab some tequila and sit on the front porch enjoying my 2002 tropical weather.

Steve

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm FAY CFHCAdministrator Sat Sep 07 2002 03:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 02:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Frank P   Sat Sep 07 2002 03:01 AM
. * * Tracker... Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 03:37 AM
. * * 07z look HanKFranK   Sat Sep 07 2002 07:48 AM
. * * Re: 07z look troy2   Sat Sep 07 2002 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Kevin   Sat Sep 07 2002 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 06:10 PM
. * * 3 systems with TC formation in the comming days Cycloneye   Sat Sep 07 2002 01:00 PM
. * * six hour later comments HanKFranK   Sat Sep 07 2002 01:11 PM
. * * Tropical thoughts Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 01:38 PM
. * * Last post was from me. n/t Kevin   Sat Sep 07 2002 01:39 PM
. * * TD#7 has formed in central atlantic Cycloneye   Sat Sep 07 2002 02:08 PM
. * * Shear Monster Struck Again Frank P   Sat Sep 07 2002 02:51 PM
. * * Interesting Bastardi quote this morning.. Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 04:05 PM
. * * NHC reasoning TOTALLY beyond me... Kevin   Sat Sep 07 2002 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY J.J.   Fri Sep 06 2002 08:37 PM
. * * Re: JJ's post Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 08:44 PM
. * * PS- Eduoard remnants Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 08:46 PM
. * * Will Fay reach cane status? Cycloneye   Fri Sep 06 2002 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY troy2   Fri Sep 06 2002 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY troy2   Fri Sep 06 2002 06:30 PM
. * * Re: GFDL== Boguscane City Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 07:27 PM
. * * Wait a minute! It's EDOUARD! Steve   Fri Sep 06 2002 06:34 PM
. * * Hey troy check out the 120 hour mrf Hurricaneman   Fri Sep 06 2002 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY troy2   Fri Sep 06 2002 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 03:49 PM
. * * fay on down HanKFranK   Fri Sep 06 2002 05:01 PM
. * * Re: fay on down Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 06:19 PM
. * * Re: fay on down Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 07:10 PM
. * * Re:Fay Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 07:31 PM
. * * Re:Fay Steve   Fri Sep 06 2002 07:47 PM
. * * Nice little rain band coming through... Steve   Fri Sep 06 2002 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 02:26 PM
. * * FAY Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 02:52 PM

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