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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Anonymous
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Tropical thoughts
      Sat Sep 07 2002 01:38 PM

Fay has jumped inland and will probably produce 20 inches of rain in some locations BUT not over Houston...training bands haven't been all that numerous there as some have said here. Somebody will get waterlogged bigtime...but it doesn't look like Houston.

Wave SE of Bermuda should be a depression late this morning or more likely later this afternoon. Convection look good and signature is decent. Kind of small so any increase in shear would make this storm very characteristic of this 2002 season: short-lived and weak.

The African is definitely going to be something in the coming days. Yesterday all of the convection was west of the wave axis but today convection is now consolidated into a tight ball. Conditions ahead are pretty good, too. Main obstacle for this system will be upper-level trough that sheared and destroyed Dolly. This one should be a pretty slow developer so should miss any threating upper-level features. *IF* this one tries to go all the way (10-15 days out) the stage looks cleared for it. I've been looking at what the tracking map looks like and it seems like we need a long track system to make things complete. It's still a few days from peak folks...but the seasons have been late the past few years it seems like.

Convection blowing up quite nicely east of the Bahamas this morning, I agree with HF that a low could try to form here later today. This is a watch and see thing, but with all of the tricks Edoaurd played with us we have to watch carefully.

BTW...Tropical Depression 7 (Floyd) formed three years ago today.

Should be at least an INVEST and maybe even T-numbers on African wave. Be surprised at no INVEST for it. Definitely getting better organized, definitely something to watch.

Kevin

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm FAY CFHCAdministrator Sat Sep 07 2002 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 02:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Frank P   Sat Sep 07 2002 03:01 AM
. * * Tracker... Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 03:37 AM
. * * 07z look HanKFranK   Sat Sep 07 2002 07:48 AM
. * * Re: 07z look troy2   Sat Sep 07 2002 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Kevin   Sat Sep 07 2002 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 06:10 PM
. * * 3 systems with TC formation in the comming days Cycloneye   Sat Sep 07 2002 01:00 PM
. * * six hour later comments HanKFranK   Sat Sep 07 2002 01:11 PM
. * * Tropical thoughts Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 01:38 PM
. * * Last post was from me. n/t Kevin   Sat Sep 07 2002 01:39 PM
. * * TD#7 has formed in central atlantic Cycloneye   Sat Sep 07 2002 02:08 PM
. * * Shear Monster Struck Again Frank P   Sat Sep 07 2002 02:51 PM
. * * Interesting Bastardi quote this morning.. Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 04:05 PM
. * * NHC reasoning TOTALLY beyond me... Kevin   Sat Sep 07 2002 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY J.J.   Fri Sep 06 2002 08:37 PM
. * * Re: JJ's post Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 08:44 PM
. * * PS- Eduoard remnants Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 08:46 PM
. * * Will Fay reach cane status? Cycloneye   Fri Sep 06 2002 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY troy2   Fri Sep 06 2002 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY troy2   Fri Sep 06 2002 06:30 PM
. * * Re: GFDL== Boguscane City Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 07:27 PM
. * * Wait a minute! It's EDOUARD! Steve   Fri Sep 06 2002 06:34 PM
. * * Hey troy check out the 120 hour mrf Hurricaneman   Fri Sep 06 2002 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY troy2   Fri Sep 06 2002 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 03:49 PM
. * * fay on down HanKFranK   Fri Sep 06 2002 05:01 PM
. * * Re: fay on down Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 06:19 PM
. * * Re: fay on down Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 07:10 PM
. * * Re:Fay Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 07:31 PM
. * * Re:Fay Steve   Fri Sep 06 2002 07:47 PM
. * * Nice little rain band coming through... Steve   Fri Sep 06 2002 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 02:26 PM
. * * FAY Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 02:52 PM

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