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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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Anonymous
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Tropical thoughts
      Sat Sep 07 2002 09:38 AM

Fay has jumped inland and will probably produce 20 inches of rain in some locations BUT not over Houston...training bands haven't been all that numerous there as some have said here. Somebody will get waterlogged bigtime...but it doesn't look like Houston.

Wave SE of Bermuda should be a depression late this morning or more likely later this afternoon. Convection look good and signature is decent. Kind of small so any increase in shear would make this storm very characteristic of this 2002 season: short-lived and weak.

The African is definitely going to be something in the coming days. Yesterday all of the convection was west of the wave axis but today convection is now consolidated into a tight ball. Conditions ahead are pretty good, too. Main obstacle for this system will be upper-level trough that sheared and destroyed Dolly. This one should be a pretty slow developer so should miss any threating upper-level features. *IF* this one tries to go all the way (10-15 days out) the stage looks cleared for it. I've been looking at what the tracking map looks like and it seems like we need a long track system to make things complete. It's still a few days from peak folks...but the seasons have been late the past few years it seems like.

Convection blowing up quite nicely east of the Bahamas this morning, I agree with HF that a low could try to form here later today. This is a watch and see thing, but with all of the tricks Edoaurd played with us we have to watch carefully.

BTW...Tropical Depression 7 (Floyd) formed three years ago today.

Should be at least an INVEST and maybe even T-numbers on African wave. Be surprised at no INVEST for it. Definitely getting better organized, definitely something to watch.

Kevin

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm FAY CFHCAdministrator Sat Sep 07 2002 09:38 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Frank P   Fri Sep 06 2002 11:01 PM
. * * Tracker... Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 11:37 PM
. * * 07z look HanKFranK   Sat Sep 07 2002 03:48 AM
. * * Re: 07z look troy2   Sat Sep 07 2002 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Kevin   Sat Sep 07 2002 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 02:10 PM
. * * 3 systems with TC formation in the comming days Cycloneye   Sat Sep 07 2002 09:00 AM
. * * six hour later comments HanKFranK   Sat Sep 07 2002 09:11 AM
. * * Tropical thoughts Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 09:38 AM
. * * Last post was from me. n/t Kevin   Sat Sep 07 2002 09:39 AM
. * * TD#7 has formed in central atlantic Cycloneye   Sat Sep 07 2002 10:08 AM
. * * Shear Monster Struck Again Frank P   Sat Sep 07 2002 10:51 AM
. * * Interesting Bastardi quote this morning.. Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 12:05 PM
. * * NHC reasoning TOTALLY beyond me... Kevin   Sat Sep 07 2002 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY J.J.   Fri Sep 06 2002 04:37 PM
. * * Re: JJ's post Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 04:44 PM
. * * PS- Eduoard remnants Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 04:46 PM
. * * Will Fay reach cane status? Cycloneye   Fri Sep 06 2002 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY troy2   Fri Sep 06 2002 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY troy2   Fri Sep 06 2002 02:30 PM
. * * Re: GFDL== Boguscane City Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 03:27 PM
. * * Wait a minute! It's EDOUARD! Steve   Fri Sep 06 2002 02:34 PM
. * * Hey troy check out the 120 hour mrf Hurricaneman   Fri Sep 06 2002 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY troy2   Fri Sep 06 2002 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 11:49 AM
. * * fay on down HanKFranK   Fri Sep 06 2002 01:01 PM
. * * Re: fay on down Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 02:19 PM
. * * Re: fay on down Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 03:10 PM
. * * Re:Fay Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 03:31 PM
. * * Re:Fay Steve   Fri Sep 06 2002 03:47 PM
. * * Nice little rain band coming through... Steve   Fri Sep 06 2002 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm FAY Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 10:26 AM
. * * FAY Anonymous   Fri Sep 06 2002 10:52 AM

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