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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Bahamian system
      Sun Sep 08 2002 03:00 AM

Tonight I'm just going to go into detail about what I think the Bahamian system could do.

I'd like to start by saying that I don't believe the low is going to form at 30N. That looks WAY to far north...seems as if it could develop at around 25N. We'll see what recon says tomorrow if they go out there. The track is dependant on the intensity in a high manner. We are still clueless about the intensity for now. The possibilities are (not in any order or probability):
1. System develops around 30N as models suggest and develops to near minimal hurricane strength. Brushes or briefly makes landfall along coastal North Carolina.
2. System develops rapidly along 25N and recurves as a category 3 or greater. Bothers no one directly.
3. System develops slowly around 25N, begins to curve NW but misses trough (like Edouard) and recurves towards anywhere from Melbourne, Florida to Savanah, Georgia. Makes landfall as a strong cat 1 or borderline cat 2.

It should be noted that this year the "home grown" storms have had a habit of near-missing or totally missing trough connections.

My final word (for now): If this thing develops a low center near 30N, a threat from NC northward seems likely. A slow developer near 25N and, well, I hope Edouard was a good drill for Floridians because this might just be the real thing given proper location and intensity of the system. We'll know a LOT more by later tomorrow. Even the NWS in Melbourne said, "Forecast is totally up in the air after Monday". All interests from EC of Florida to North Carolina need to keep a very close eye to their south and east.

I believe this will recieve the name "Gustav" if it goes tropical. "Gustav"...kinda sounds a little scary like Georges.

Kevin

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms John C Sun Sep 08 2002 03:00 AM
. * * Gustav Update Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 09 2002 10:39 PM
. * * Caneman Rad   Mon Sep 09 2002 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms troy2   Mon Sep 09 2002 02:21 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 12:48 AM
. * * TD #8 has been Initialized Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:48 PM
. * * Re: TD #8 has been Initialized Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 04:15 PM
. * * everything HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 04:39 PM
. * * Gustav and tropical wave in atlantic Cycloneye   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:39 PM
. * * Gulf of Mexico Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 11:25 PM
. * * policy HanKFranK   Mon Sep 09 2002 12:07 AM
. * * Re: policy Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 12:20 AM
. * * another dose HanKFranK   Mon Sep 09 2002 12:44 AM
. * * Re: another dose 57497479   Mon Sep 09 2002 02:24 AM
. * * Re: another dose Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 12:52 AM
. * * Re: another dose Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 01:17 AM
. * * Re: everything Mary K.   Sun Sep 08 2002 05:45 PM
. * * Hey HF... Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 06:35 PM
. * * Thanks for the Band! Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Thanks for the Band! ShawnS   Sun Sep 08 2002 07:10 PM
. * * Steve ShawnS   Sun Sep 08 2002 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Steve 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 03:11 AM
. * * Re: Steve 57497479   Mon Sep 09 2002 03:29 AM
. * * Hey 574... Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 03:54 AM
. * * Re: Hey 574... 57497479   Mon Sep 09 2002 04:17 AM
. * * this week HanKFranK   Mon Sep 09 2002 02:39 PM
. * * Interesting Houston Forecast disc... Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Houston Forecast disc... ShawnS   Mon Sep 09 2002 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Houston Forecast disc... Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 09:36 PM
. * * Gustav rotating about another center? Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Houston Forecast disc... andy1tom   Mon Sep 09 2002 05:33 PM
. * * NHC changed naming conventions... Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 05:46 PM
. * * close in HanKFranK   Mon Sep 09 2002 06:11 PM
. * * Re: close in Cycloneye   Mon Sep 09 2002 09:48 PM
. * * My tropical thoughts. Kevin   Mon Sep 09 2002 10:27 PM
. * * Low off Tx not Fl threat? Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 06:38 PM
. * * Re: Low off Tx not Fl threat? caneman   Mon Sep 09 2002 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Low off Tx not Fl threat? Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 07:30 PM
. * * Gustav moving west Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 07:51 PM
. * * Multiple centers Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 01:38 AM
. * * Re: Steve 57497479   Mon Sep 09 2002 02:51 AM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 02:59 AM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms J.J.   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms troy2   Sun Sep 08 2002 06:47 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms troy2   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:24 AM
. * * Hey Scott Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 08:52 PM
. * * 97L will be the biggest threat to the US Cycloneye   Sat Sep 07 2002 09:33 PM
. * * Bastardi on the GOM.. Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 10:03 PM
. * * late day stuff HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 01:31 AM
. * * Bahamian system Kevin   Sun Sep 08 2002 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Bahamian system HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 03:24 AM
. * * Actually... Kevin   Sun Sep 08 2002 03:52 AM
. * * Re: Actually... troy2   Sun Sep 08 2002 03:57 AM
. * * Re: Actually... HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 04:37 AM
. * * Hey Kevin... Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 06:40 PM
. * * Scott & Steve ShawnS   Sat Sep 07 2002 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Scott & Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Scott & Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 06:45 AM

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