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Invest 95L in the Tropical Atlantic now has a 90% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and a 70% chance to do so in the next 48 hours. Recon scheduled for Sunday morning.a
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 302 (Idalia) , Major: 302 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 302 (Idalia) Major: 302 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Bahamian system
      Sat Sep 07 2002 11:00 PM

Tonight I'm just going to go into detail about what I think the Bahamian system could do.

I'd like to start by saying that I don't believe the low is going to form at 30N. That looks WAY to far north...seems as if it could develop at around 25N. We'll see what recon says tomorrow if they go out there. The track is dependant on the intensity in a high manner. We are still clueless about the intensity for now. The possibilities are (not in any order or probability):
1. System develops around 30N as models suggest and develops to near minimal hurricane strength. Brushes or briefly makes landfall along coastal North Carolina.
2. System develops rapidly along 25N and recurves as a category 3 or greater. Bothers no one directly.
3. System develops slowly around 25N, begins to curve NW but misses trough (like Edouard) and recurves towards anywhere from Melbourne, Florida to Savanah, Georgia. Makes landfall as a strong cat 1 or borderline cat 2.

It should be noted that this year the "home grown" storms have had a habit of near-missing or totally missing trough connections.

My final word (for now): If this thing develops a low center near 30N, a threat from NC northward seems likely. A slow developer near 25N and, well, I hope Edouard was a good drill for Floridians because this might just be the real thing given proper location and intensity of the system. We'll know a LOT more by later tomorrow. Even the NWS in Melbourne said, "Forecast is totally up in the air after Monday". All interests from EC of Florida to North Carolina need to keep a very close eye to their south and east.

I believe this will recieve the name "Gustav" if it goes tropical. "Gustav"...kinda sounds a little scary like Georges.

Kevin

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms John C Sat Sep 07 2002 11:00 PM
. * * Gustav Update Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 09 2002 06:39 PM
. * * Caneman Rad   Mon Sep 09 2002 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms troy2   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:48 PM
. * * TD #8 has been Initialized Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:48 AM
. * * Re: TD #8 has been Initialized Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 12:15 PM
. * * everything HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 12:39 PM
. * * Gustav and tropical wave in atlantic Cycloneye   Sun Sep 08 2002 04:39 PM
. * * Gulf of Mexico Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 07:25 PM
. * * policy HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:07 PM
. * * Re: policy Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:20 PM
. * * another dose HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:44 PM
. * * Re: another dose 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:24 PM
. * * Re: another dose Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:52 PM
. * * Re: another dose Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 09:17 PM
. * * Re: everything Mary K.   Sun Sep 08 2002 01:45 PM
. * * Hey HF... Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:35 PM
. * * Thanks for the Band! Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Thanks for the Band! ShawnS   Sun Sep 08 2002 03:10 PM
. * * Steve ShawnS   Sun Sep 08 2002 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Steve 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Steve 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 11:29 PM
. * * Hey 574... Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Hey 574... 57497479   Mon Sep 09 2002 12:17 AM
. * * this week HanKFranK   Mon Sep 09 2002 10:39 AM
. * * Interesting Houston Forecast disc... Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Houston Forecast disc... ShawnS   Mon Sep 09 2002 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Houston Forecast disc... Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 05:36 PM
. * * Gustav rotating about another center? Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Houston Forecast disc... andy1tom   Mon Sep 09 2002 01:33 PM
. * * NHC changed naming conventions... Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 01:46 PM
. * * close in HanKFranK   Mon Sep 09 2002 02:11 PM
. * * Re: close in Cycloneye   Mon Sep 09 2002 05:48 PM
. * * My tropical thoughts. Kevin   Mon Sep 09 2002 06:27 PM
. * * Low off Tx not Fl threat? Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Low off Tx not Fl threat? caneman   Mon Sep 09 2002 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Low off Tx not Fl threat? Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 03:30 PM
. * * Gustav moving west Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 03:51 PM
. * * Multiple centers Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 09:38 PM
. * * Re: Steve 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms J.J.   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms troy2   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms troy2   Sat Sep 07 2002 10:24 PM
. * * Hey Scott Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 04:52 PM
. * * 97L will be the biggest threat to the US Cycloneye   Sat Sep 07 2002 05:33 PM
. * * Bastardi on the GOM.. Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 06:03 PM
. * * late day stuff HanKFranK   Sat Sep 07 2002 09:31 PM
. * * Bahamian system Kevin   Sat Sep 07 2002 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Bahamian system HanKFranK   Sat Sep 07 2002 11:24 PM
. * * Actually... Kevin   Sat Sep 07 2002 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Actually... troy2   Sat Sep 07 2002 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Actually... HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 12:37 AM
. * * Hey Kevin... Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 02:40 PM
. * * Scott & Steve ShawnS   Sat Sep 07 2002 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Scott & Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Scott & Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:45 AM

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