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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

Re: Actually...
Sun Sep 08 2002 12:37 AM

hey, give td 7 a little credit. hung on as an invest for five days before being classified, and upstream im not so sure about what conditions it will meet. possibly support as there is a split in the flow ahead, one jet tailing the receding central atlantic trough into that sharp trough in the east atlantic.. and the other hooking around to the sw into the caribbean. could provide diffluent support (though i admit this is not likely).
nuff about the td. other things:
1) 97L putting up some deeper convection on the last pics. presentation isnt improving in a huge hurry, but it has improved a lot since saturday morning. this of course could be our bavarian storm tomorrow.. (german names in the atlantic basin??)
2) gulf disturbance convection on the slide from earlier.. convergent surge supporting has weakened. inland with fay i get this strange idea it might develop a new feeder band off the gulf and start tracing it back SE... seems really off the wall but for some reason it wont leave my mind.
3) the much mentioned wave off africa.. there is a low level swirl that ran out ahead, shows up well even on IR2. think this is the low formerly associated with the wave. lot of subsidence out there.. and i think the high amp trough in the far east atlantic sheared its convection away. tempted to say.. so much for that. but it is a fairly energetic feature for sure.
4) mjo graphic is showing a positive anomaly patch that has developed over the atlantic. might bring our activity burst to an end, or just be a flub. shear has become quite a bit more pronounced over the last week or so.
HF 0431z08september

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms	John C	Sun Sep 08 2002 12:37 AM
Gustav Update	Ed Dunham	Mon Sep 09 2002 06:39 PM
Caneman	Rad	Mon Sep 09 2002 06:49 PM
Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms	troy2	Sun Sep 08 2002 10:21 PM
Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 08:48 PM
TD #8 has been Initialized	Ed Dunham	Sun Sep 08 2002 10:48 AM
Re: TD #8 has been Initialized	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 12:15 PM
everything	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 08 2002 12:39 PM
Gustav and tropical wave in atlantic	Cycloneye	Sun Sep 08 2002 04:39 PM
Gulf of Mexico	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 07:25 PM
policy	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 08 2002 08:07 PM
Re: policy	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 08:20 PM
another dose	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 08 2002 08:44 PM
Re: another dose	57497479	Sun Sep 08 2002 10:24 PM
Re: another dose	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 08:52 PM
Re: another dose	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 09:17 PM
Re: everything	Mary K.	Sun Sep 08 2002 01:45 PM
Hey HF...	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 02:35 PM
Thanks for the Band!	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 02:59 PM
Re: Thanks for the Band!	ShawnS	Sun Sep 08 2002 03:10 PM
Steve	ShawnS	Sun Sep 08 2002 12:25 PM
Re: Steve	57497479	Sun Sep 08 2002 12:47 PM
Re: Steve	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 11:11 PM
Re: Steve	57497479	Sun Sep 08 2002 11:29 PM
Hey 574...	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 11:54 PM
Re: Hey 574...	57497479	Mon Sep 09 2002 12:17 AM
this week	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 09 2002 10:39 AM
Interesting Houston Forecast disc...	Anonymous	Mon Sep 09 2002 12:40 PM
Re: Interesting Houston Forecast disc...	ShawnS	Mon Sep 09 2002 01:22 PM
Re: Interesting Houston Forecast disc...	Anonymous	Mon Sep 09 2002 05:36 PM
Gustav rotating about another center?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 09 2002 01:40 PM
Re: Interesting Houston Forecast disc...	andy1tom	Mon Sep 09 2002 01:33 PM
NHC changed naming conventions...	Anonymous	Mon Sep 09 2002 01:46 PM
close in	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 09 2002 02:11 PM
Re: close in	Cycloneye	Mon Sep 09 2002 05:48 PM
My tropical thoughts.	Kevin	Mon Sep 09 2002 06:27 PM
Low off Tx not Fl threat?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 09 2002 02:38 PM
Re: Low off Tx not Fl threat?	caneman	Mon Sep 09 2002 02:50 PM
Re: Low off Tx not Fl threat?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 09 2002 03:30 PM
Gustav moving west	Anonymous	Mon Sep 09 2002 03:51 PM
Multiple centers	Anonymous	Mon Sep 09 2002 04:13 PM
Re: Steve	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 09:38 PM
Re: Steve	57497479	Sun Sep 08 2002 10:51 PM
Re: Steve	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 10:59 PM
Re: Steve	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 09:30 PM
Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms	J.J.	Sun Sep 08 2002 10:46 AM
Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 10:23 AM
Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 09:56 AM
Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms	57497479	Sun Sep 08 2002 10:14 AM
Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms	troy2	Sun Sep 08 2002 02:47 AM
Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms	57497479	Sun Sep 08 2002 09:19 AM
Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms	troy2	Sat Sep 07 2002 10:24 PM
Hey Scott	Anonymous	Sat Sep 07 2002 04:52 PM
97L will be the biggest threat to the US	Cycloneye	Sat Sep 07 2002 05:33 PM
Bastardi on the GOM..	Anonymous	Sat Sep 07 2002 06:03 PM
late day stuff	HanKFranK	Sat Sep 07 2002 09:31 PM
Bahamian system	Kevin	Sat Sep 07 2002 11:00 PM
Re: Bahamian system	HanKFranK	Sat Sep 07 2002 11:24 PM
Actually...	Kevin	Sat Sep 07 2002 11:52 PM
Re: Actually...	troy2	Sat Sep 07 2002 11:57 PM
Re: Actually...	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 08 2002 12:37 AM
Hey Kevin...	Anonymous	Sat Sep 07 2002 02:40 PM
Scott & Steve	ShawnS	Sat Sep 07 2002 03:18 PM
Re: Scott & Steve	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 02:30 AM
Re: Scott & Steve	Anonymous	Sun Sep 08 2002 02:45 AM

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