Forecasting fun with Jeanne

Lets try to refocus a little. Two current themes need to be dropped. The Accuweather discussion has centered on personalities rather than the storms that are out there. What may seem irresponsible to some could be critical planning information to others. If the forecast seems bad to you, talk about the forecast, but not the individual who made it. I too brief Emergency Management personnel and my outlook on Jeanne has gone down the tubes (more than once). They know that, but they still ask me to keep trying.

Comments on power companies are a real stretch for the Main Page. If you have some usefull information regarding electric service that would be of benefit to others, put it in the Disaster Forum where it more appropriately belongs.

Mike and John are not available and I'm still hauling debris and briefing management on Jeanne - both difficult tasks. LI Phil and HanKFranK have done a great job in the interim and Storm Cooper is getting his baptism under fire - my thanks to all of them.

On Jeanne: Under westerly shear, the low level circulation center moved westward away from the primary convection this morning and this center, still quite strong, is now in the process of completing a cyclonic loop. It is also beginning to capture convection again - and that could create an interesting dilemma since NHC has identified a new center further to the east and north of the primary swirl. The 'new' center has probably been there all along - originally embedded in the main feeder band southeast of Puerto Rico. In other words Jeanne has always been a binary system - something that 'meteorology' is not yet willing to accept, but they do happen - and quite often. New concepts in any science sometimes take a long time to gain acceptance - and Meteorology is certainly one of the newer sciences, so we still have a lot to learn. Where will Jeanne go and how strong will she get? Nobody really knows for sure (myself included). Upper air patterns would suggest a slow movement to the north followed by an anticyclonic block and a turn to the west. How far north and how soon the turn is anybodys best guess - yours included. Recon has identified the new center at 22.2N 72.1W, 1002mb, 42kts at flight level. Original center is at 23.8N 73.9W at 21Z. 1004mb.

Karl is well on his way to becoming the fifth major hurricane of the season. The system behind Karl should become TD 13 later tonight.

For the moment, comments regarding the well-being of the CFHC family along the northern Gulf are fine - because we are one. Jason Kelley and his family are okay and he did not suffer any damage to his home - and probably considers himself lucky.
Cheers,
ED

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