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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
everything
      Sun Sep 08 2002 12:39 PM

idea that fay might backtrack has only to do with the tendency for a tropical cyclone center to develop towards its support, and for climo on texas systems to move inland and behave erratically. since there isnt much to steer the system, im guessing it could do it.. but there isnt any kind of clear push back like the one allison had.
there is also the tendency for models wanting to maintain unsettled weather in the gulf.. guess that plays in with the whole idea too.
subtd 8.. close up visibles are showing lots of small vortices pinwheeling around. system is getting a better deep-system proflie as strong atmospheric lifting is generating these. still awkwardly organized, but expecting hurricane hunter to find gale force winds already, when it gets in there in a couple hours. as for track.. something new finally appeared in the runs.. one of the ukmet ones wants to phase it in and takes it very close to cape cod. stands out among the various NE buttonhook solutions. some models are making subtd 8 a very intense cyclone, by the way.
td 7.. looks for the worse. only little catch here is that an upstream shear-friendly environment exists.. but by then expect the low to be disorganized and just a chunky piece of inflow for what should be gustav at that point.. to digest.
wave near 35w.. very low amplitude but quite energetic. upper winds are becoming less favorable in the east atlantic though.. and lots of subsidence. just have to see how well the considerable amt of convection can hold on.
so likely tropical system moving towards the carolinas early week, possibly up the coast. various models want to maintain disturbed weather in the gulf.
td 7 weakened or maintained as a weak feature.
wave that went into the islands this morning well defined but convectionless.. unimportant now.
a couple more energetic waves to come off africa this week.
thats the way things stand right now.
HF 1631z08september


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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms John C Sun Sep 08 2002 12:39 PM
. * * Gustav Update Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 09 2002 06:39 PM
. * * Caneman Rad   Mon Sep 09 2002 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms troy2   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:48 PM
. * * TD #8 has been Initialized Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:48 AM
. * * Re: TD #8 has been Initialized Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 12:15 PM
. * * everything HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 12:39 PM
. * * Gustav and tropical wave in atlantic Cycloneye   Sun Sep 08 2002 04:39 PM
. * * Gulf of Mexico Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 07:25 PM
. * * policy HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:07 PM
. * * Re: policy Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:20 PM
. * * another dose HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:44 PM
. * * Re: another dose 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:24 PM
. * * Re: another dose Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:52 PM
. * * Re: another dose Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 09:17 PM
. * * Re: everything Mary K.   Sun Sep 08 2002 01:45 PM
. * * Hey HF... Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:35 PM
. * * Thanks for the Band! Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Thanks for the Band! ShawnS   Sun Sep 08 2002 03:10 PM
. * * Steve ShawnS   Sun Sep 08 2002 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Steve 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Steve 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 11:29 PM
. * * Hey 574... Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Hey 574... 57497479   Mon Sep 09 2002 12:17 AM
. * * this week HanKFranK   Mon Sep 09 2002 10:39 AM
. * * Interesting Houston Forecast disc... Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Houston Forecast disc... ShawnS   Mon Sep 09 2002 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Houston Forecast disc... Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 05:36 PM
. * * Gustav rotating about another center? Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Houston Forecast disc... andy1tom   Mon Sep 09 2002 01:33 PM
. * * NHC changed naming conventions... Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 01:46 PM
. * * close in HanKFranK   Mon Sep 09 2002 02:11 PM
. * * Re: close in Cycloneye   Mon Sep 09 2002 05:48 PM
. * * My tropical thoughts. Kevin   Mon Sep 09 2002 06:27 PM
. * * Low off Tx not Fl threat? Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Low off Tx not Fl threat? caneman   Mon Sep 09 2002 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Low off Tx not Fl threat? Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 03:30 PM
. * * Gustav moving west Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 03:51 PM
. * * Multiple centers Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 09:38 PM
. * * Re: Steve 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms J.J.   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms troy2   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms troy2   Sat Sep 07 2002 10:24 PM
. * * Hey Scott Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 04:52 PM
. * * 97L will be the biggest threat to the US Cycloneye   Sat Sep 07 2002 05:33 PM
. * * Bastardi on the GOM.. Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 06:03 PM
. * * late day stuff HanKFranK   Sat Sep 07 2002 09:31 PM
. * * Bahamian system Kevin   Sat Sep 07 2002 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Bahamian system HanKFranK   Sat Sep 07 2002 11:24 PM
. * * Actually... Kevin   Sat Sep 07 2002 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Actually... troy2   Sat Sep 07 2002 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Actually... HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 12:37 AM
. * * Hey Kevin... Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 02:40 PM
. * * Scott & Steve ShawnS   Sat Sep 07 2002 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Scott & Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Scott & Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:45 AM

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