I was surprised today when the LLC got exposed, then the next update reported finding a new center. I have not looked as closely on this as when Ivan or Frances were around, but my first look at the IR sat pic, and I thought "that looks more like an ULL" My guess is that the models are going to have a difficult time initializing a center, at least for now, which will make the output even shakier. Talk about a weather change, early afternoon here in NJ it was 76, dew point 73, when a heavy shower came through, then it was 65 with NE winds gusting to 30 within a half hour or so. It is now 59 with a dew point of 54. I only got about .85" out of it, although Eastern PA got 6" in spots, doppler est. A strong deformation zone formed, and concentrated heavy rain there almost all day. It actually had more of an extratropical feel to the weather here today.
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