SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 840 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
FINAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF THE EVENING HAS MOVED SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE PENINSULA WITH NO OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
AT 00Z VORT MAX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN...IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 23 KNOTS OFF OF THE FLORIDA NE COAST NEAR 29.5N 77.5W. EXTRAPOLATING THIS MOTION...IT WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR FORT PIERCE-VERO BEACH TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 12Z AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.
BESIDES FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...ENOUGH HELICITY IS PROBABLY AVAILABLE TO CAUSE FUNNEL CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER WESTERN MIAMI-DADE AT THE MOMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE EVERGLADES OF DADE AND MONROE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE BEGINNING OF INCREASINGLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AS A CHUNK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE FORMERLY KNOWN AS IVAN REACHES FLORIDA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LARGE AREA OF STRATO-CU SURGING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE LAST 2 DAYS WORTH OF GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED THIS FEATURE ARRIVING IN SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY. LATEST INCARNATION INCLUDES WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TOMORROW. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO 40 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE EAST COAST TOMORROW (EMPHASIZING BEST CHANCES AT THE COAST AND NEARER TO PALM BEACH).
AFTER THAT THE NORTHEAST WIND REGIME SETTLES IN FOR THE LONG HAUL...WHICH WILL BE MORE OF A MARINE/BEACH ISSUE (SEE BELOW). &&
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