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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 298 (Idalia) , Major: 298 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 298 (Idalia) Major: 298 (Idalia)
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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2002 Storm Forum
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Subtropical Storm Gustav
      Mon Sep 09 2002 12:06 AM

Gustav is still very much subtropical and will probably stay that way during the night. Center still trying to form - I placed it at 30.5N 73W at 03Z, or a little southwest of the NHC coordinates. Movement has been nil for the past few hours. I'm still not putting a high degree of probability in the northwest track. This subtropical system has its origin in an upper level low. Tropical models try to move systems based on their tropical nature and the environment that will influence them. Models don't handle subtropical systems with cold-core low origins quite as well. Eventual movement, at least the initial movement, could turn out to be far more westerly than currently advertised - I don't expect anything to happen too quickly with this system. Upper low systems that evolve into tropical systems don't usually make drastic direction changes so I'd keep an eye on Gustav from north Florida to Cape Hatteras.

Sidenote: Gulf of Mexico is looking interesting - the proverbial boiling pot - possible development in a couple of days. Wouldn't surprise me any to eventually see a significant system, however there is no evidence of structure at the moment. Area just north of the Yucatan has potential.
Cheers,
ED

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Subtropical Storm Gustav Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Sep 09 2002 12:06 AM
. * * STS Gustav - Update 09/09 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 09 2002 06:34 PM
. * * Re: STS Gustav - Update 09/09 HanKFranK   Mon Sep 09 2002 09:37 PM

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