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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
close in
      Mon Sep 09 2002 02:11 PM

gustav still has a decoupled inner core. there is either one mid to low level center under the main convective burst or just a mid level center with a smaller one pinwheeling into the dry air slot. noticed that subsidence only really tends to affect tropical systems when there is shear aiding its intrusion.. in this case easterly gradient shear between the upper low to the south and the ridge to the north. as the storm slows and moves closer to the coast this should abate some.. as the ridge to the north recedes. think that gustav will begin to intensify by this evening and become a hurricane some time tuesday.. and move very close to carteret hyde and dare counties if not across them.
fay.. the low level remnant swirl is tracing i35 southwest in texas.. down near laredo now. offshore the primary feeder band is becoming a development threat. sfc obs indicating low pressures and some westerly winds on the west side of the convective line, with a strong easterly flow on the other side... and as the earlier posted discussion says, several models calling for low pressure to develop off the texas coast. personally thinking if anything comes together it will be east of brownsville. florida people, some of you are talking like it will be your problem. i doubt this.. would be unusual for a tropical system to hit central florida after forming off texas. models are likely seriously overdoing the late week amplification on/off the east coast. think it more likely a western gulf problem. but, if a low were to form in the central gulf.. then, maybe.
td 7 remnants, as bastardi mentions, not aware theyre supposed to be dead. not looking particularly good.. they got the bright idea to stall under the outflow jet from gustav (edouard exhibited this peculiar sadistic attitude). not moving west very fast, but not going away very fast either. low chances, but existent ones, that it will redevelop.
central atlantic wave.. thinking it may develop past 50w. very energetic.
HF 1805z09september

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms John C Mon Sep 09 2002 02:11 PM
. * * Gustav Update Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 09 2002 06:39 PM
. * * Caneman Rad   Mon Sep 09 2002 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms troy2   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:48 PM
. * * TD #8 has been Initialized Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:48 AM
. * * Re: TD #8 has been Initialized Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 12:15 PM
. * * everything HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 12:39 PM
. * * Gustav and tropical wave in atlantic Cycloneye   Sun Sep 08 2002 04:39 PM
. * * Gulf of Mexico Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 07:25 PM
. * * policy HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:07 PM
. * * Re: policy Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:20 PM
. * * another dose HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:44 PM
. * * Re: another dose 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:24 PM
. * * Re: another dose Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 08:52 PM
. * * Re: another dose Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 09:17 PM
. * * Re: everything Mary K.   Sun Sep 08 2002 01:45 PM
. * * Hey HF... Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:35 PM
. * * Thanks for the Band! Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Thanks for the Band! ShawnS   Sun Sep 08 2002 03:10 PM
. * * Steve ShawnS   Sun Sep 08 2002 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Steve 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Steve 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 11:29 PM
. * * Hey 574... Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Hey 574... 57497479   Mon Sep 09 2002 12:17 AM
. * * this week HanKFranK   Mon Sep 09 2002 10:39 AM
. * * Interesting Houston Forecast disc... Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Houston Forecast disc... ShawnS   Mon Sep 09 2002 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Houston Forecast disc... Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 05:36 PM
. * * Gustav rotating about another center? Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Houston Forecast disc... andy1tom   Mon Sep 09 2002 01:33 PM
. * * NHC changed naming conventions... Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 01:46 PM
. * * close in HanKFranK   Mon Sep 09 2002 02:11 PM
. * * Re: close in Cycloneye   Mon Sep 09 2002 05:48 PM
. * * My tropical thoughts. Kevin   Mon Sep 09 2002 06:27 PM
. * * Low off Tx not Fl threat? Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Low off Tx not Fl threat? caneman   Mon Sep 09 2002 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Low off Tx not Fl threat? Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 03:30 PM
. * * Gustav moving west Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 03:51 PM
. * * Multiple centers Anonymous   Mon Sep 09 2002 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 09:38 PM
. * * Re: Steve 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms J.J.   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms troy2   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms 57497479   Sun Sep 08 2002 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Fay Dies, TD#7 Forms troy2   Sat Sep 07 2002 10:24 PM
. * * Hey Scott Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 04:52 PM
. * * 97L will be the biggest threat to the US Cycloneye   Sat Sep 07 2002 05:33 PM
. * * Bastardi on the GOM.. Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 06:03 PM
. * * late day stuff HanKFranK   Sat Sep 07 2002 09:31 PM
. * * Bahamian system Kevin   Sat Sep 07 2002 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Bahamian system HanKFranK   Sat Sep 07 2002 11:24 PM
. * * Actually... Kevin   Sat Sep 07 2002 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Actually... troy2   Sat Sep 07 2002 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Actually... HanKFranK   Sun Sep 08 2002 12:37 AM
. * * Hey Kevin... Anonymous   Sat Sep 07 2002 02:40 PM
. * * Scott & Steve ShawnS   Sat Sep 07 2002 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Scott & Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Scott & Steve Anonymous   Sun Sep 08 2002 02:45 AM

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