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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Ed in Va
Weather Master

Reged:
Posts: 489

HPC/TPC?
Tue Sep 21 2004 02:30 PM

Question about the HPC discussion below, which takes Jeanne fairly close to NC: What is the relationship between HPC and TPC...looks like they coordinate with other, but the HPC goes out 7 days??
THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN LOOKING VERY MUCH LIKE THE PREFERRED MODEL
SOLN FROM THE PRELIM PROGS. DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES TO THE
TIMING OF SYSTEMS OVER THE CONUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TWO
TROP SYSTEMS. THE NOGAPS IS TRENDING WEAKER BUT CONSIDERABLY
SLOWER WITH THE UPR TROF OVER THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY IN THE PD
WHILE THE CAN GLOB IS TRENDING STRONGER AND SLOWER BY DAY 3/FRI.
THE TIMING OF THIS TROF WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE TRACK/TIMING OF
BOTH HRCN JEANNE AND THE REMNANTS OF IVAN IN THE GOMEX. WITH BOTH
OF THESE MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE TROF...ONE WOULD THINK A
STRONGER SOLN WOULD WIN OUT...BUT BOTH MODELS ALLOW THE TROF TO
LIFT OUT AND SEND JEANNE TO THE S OF THE H5 RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL POINTS FROM THE UKMET SEND THE
SYS WELL OUT TO SEA BY DAY 6/MON...WITH A PSN AT 33.2N 70.0W...AND
THE 12Z GFS STILL REFUSES TO TAKE THE SYSTEM WEST OF 70N. THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF THRU DAY 5/SUN
WHICH WAS AMPLIFIED AND HAD A SIMILAR TIMING TO THE 00Z
GFS...ALLOWING JEANNE TO THE PICKED UP BY THE TROF. THE 06Z NCEP
ENS MEAN ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER...BUT STILL REASONABLY
STRONG...H5 RIDGE APPROACHING JEANNE. THE ULTIMATE SOLN...WHICH
WAS AGREED UPON DURING COORD WITH TPC...ALLOWED FOR A MUCH MORE
WLY SOLN THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AFTER DAY 6/MON...BUT DOES NOT TAKE
THE SYS ONSHORE ON DAY 7/TUES. THIS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
IDEA OF THE PRELIM PROGS WHICH WERE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z
GFS AND THE SLOWER NCEP ENS MEAN SOLN.

THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN
CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN GOMEX ATTM. THE MANUAL PROGS REFLECT COORD
WITH TPC.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
The Basin Stays Busy	Ed Dunham	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:30 PM
The E. Atlantic	Clark	Wed Sep 22 2004 01:58 AM
Re: The E. Atlantic	James88	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:14 AM
Re: The E. Atlantic	Rasvar	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:48 AM
Re: The E. Atlantic	Steve hirschb.	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:57 AM
AM Ivan remnants.....	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:17 AM
Re: AM Ivan remnants.....	MO Stormspotter	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:49 AM
Re: AM Ivan remnants.....	Ed in Va	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:12 AM
model runs on Ivan remnants	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:22 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	MikeC	Tue Sep 21 2004 09:36 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	DMFischer	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:02 PM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	leetdan	Mon Sep 20 2004 11:35 PM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	BillD	Tue Sep 21 2004 12:06 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	Hurric	Mon Sep 20 2004 10:41 PM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	Clark	Mon Sep 20 2004 10:39 PM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	Hurric	Mon Sep 20 2004 10:45 PM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	Clark	Tue Sep 21 2004 12:16 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	Second Shift	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:17 AM
The ghost of Ivan continues	WXMAN RICHIE	Tue Sep 21 2004 06:53 AM
Re: The ghost of Ivan continues	Rasvar	Tue Sep 21 2004 09:14 AM
Re: The ghost of Ivan continues	BeachBum	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:04 PM
Re: The ghost of Ivan continues	Ormond Suzie	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:29 PM
survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!	rickonboat	Tue Sep 21 2004 09:59 AM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!	DMFischer	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:05 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!	Storm Cooper	Tue Sep 21 2004 11:33 AM
Question for Mike or John C...	Steve	Tue Sep 21 2004 11:36 AM
Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today	June from Port Orange	Tue Sep 21 2004 12:12 PM
Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today	leetdan	Tue Sep 21 2004 12:14 PM
Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today	CarolinaGurl	Tue Sep 21 2004 12:28 PM
Ivan's Return	Domino	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:04 PM
Re: Ivan's Return	MO STORMSPOTTER	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:06 PM
Re: Ivan's Return	Katie	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:42 PM
Re: Ivan's Return	doug	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:48 PM
Re: Ivan's Return	Fletch	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:52 PM
Re: Ivan's Return vs Mitch	lois	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:16 PM
Re: Ivan's Return	leetdan	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:16 PM
Re: Ivan's Return	Rabbit	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:12 PM
Re: Ivan's Return	Domino	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:19 PM
Re: Ivan's Return	doug	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:27 PM
Re: Ivan's Return	Domino	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:31 PM
Re: Ivan's Return	doug	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:43 PM
Re: Ivan's Return	Fletch	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:48 PM
Jeanne-retirement after the season?	LI Phil	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:55 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Staggy	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:44 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	EPA-storm watch	Tue Sep 21 2004 03:04 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Fletch	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:59 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	ShanaTX	Tue Sep 21 2004 03:45 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	LI Phil	Tue Sep 21 2004 04:01 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Ricreig	Tue Sep 21 2004 04:17 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	LI Phil	Tue Sep 21 2004 04:24 PM
other storms	Rabbit	Tue Sep 21 2004 05:05 PM
Make that 1985...	LI Phil	Tue Sep 21 2004 05:07 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Keith234	Tue Sep 21 2004 05:02 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Ricreig	Tue Sep 21 2004 05:12 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	k___g	Tue Sep 21 2004 09:53 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Redbird1	Tue Sep 21 2004 05:30 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Ricreig	Tue Sep 21 2004 05:43 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Redbird1	Tue Sep 21 2004 05:51 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	scottsvb	Tue Sep 21 2004 06:31 PM
bevy of comments	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 21 2004 07:35 PM
Re: bevy of comments	Clark	Tue Sep 21 2004 09:09 PM
Re: bevy of comments	Keith234	Tue Sep 21 2004 09:02 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Keith234	Tue Sep 21 2004 07:00 PM
Jeanne 5 Day	LI Phil	Tue Sep 21 2004 07:28 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day	Kent	Wed Sep 22 2004 12:41 AM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day	Keith234	Tue Sep 21 2004 08:36 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day	Redbird1	Tue Sep 21 2004 07:39 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day	LI Phil	Tue Sep 21 2004 07:51 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day	MR. UnHappy	Tue Sep 21 2004 08:37 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day	Girlnascar	Wed Sep 22 2004 12:10 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy	Kdubs	Tue Sep 21 2004 09:53 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy	Mr. UnHappy	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:54 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:44 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy	mr. UnHappy	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:15 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy	leetdan	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:28 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy	Mozart	Wed Sep 22 2004 11:23 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy	Redbird1	Wed Sep 22 2004 11:13 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy	Rabbit	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:09 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy	storm chaser	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:22 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy	Katie	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:19 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy	storm chaser	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:29 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy	strom chaser	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:31 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy	cmdebbie	Tue Sep 21 2004 10:31 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy	recmod	Tue Sep 21 2004 10:12 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Tue Sep 21 2004 10:52 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy	mom2als	Wed Sep 22 2004 12:48 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy	Redbird1	Wed Sep 22 2004 11:07 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy	Mr. UnHappy	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:29 AM
What is your thinking on the wave behind Lisa?	Matt033	Wed Sep 22 2004 01:12 AM
Thomas says Florida beware again	WXMAN RICHIE	Tue Sep 21 2004 10:01 PM
Re: Thomas says Florida beware again	Rasvar	Tue Sep 21 2004 10:13 PM
Re: Thomas says Florida beware again	WXMAN RICHIE	Tue Sep 21 2004 10:16 PM
Jeanne News Worsens Yet Again	recmod	Tue Sep 21 2004 10:29 PM
Re: Jeanne News Worsens Yet Again	recmod	Tue Sep 21 2004 11:12 PM
Re: Jeanne News Worsens Yet Again	Steve	Tue Sep 21 2004 11:35 PM
Re: Jeanne News Worsens Yet Again	Kent	Wed Sep 22 2004 12:15 AM
Re: Thomas says Florida beware again	52255225	Tue Sep 21 2004 10:10 PM
Re: FEMA	danielw	Tue Sep 21 2004 09:08 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day	leetdan	Tue Sep 21 2004 08:48 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day	anon	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:05 AM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day	Redbird1	Tue Sep 21 2004 08:05 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day	troy	Tue Sep 21 2004 08:38 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day	LI Phil	Tue Sep 21 2004 08:55 PM
Ivan remnants getting pulzerized by shear	Frank P	Tue Sep 21 2004 09:12 PM
Re: Bear Watch	danielw	Tue Sep 21 2004 09:35 PM
Re: Bear Watch	Frank P	Tue Sep 21 2004 09:44 PM
Re: Bear Watch	SoonerShawn	Tue Sep 21 2004 09:40 PM
Re: Bear Watch	BillD	Tue Sep 21 2004 09:39 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day	DroopGB31	Tue Sep 21 2004 09:06 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day	DroopGB31	Tue Sep 21 2004 09:11 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day	Steve	Tue Sep 21 2004 07:49 PM
Jeanne's Death Toll Rising Fast	recmod	Tue Sep 21 2004 07:24 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Rabbit	Tue Sep 21 2004 05:19 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Ricreig	Tue Sep 21 2004 05:34 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Redbird1	Tue Sep 21 2004 05:38 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Ricreig	Tue Sep 21 2004 04:10 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	clueless	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:05 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	leetdan	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:09 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	scottsvb	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:09 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Rasvar	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:36 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	doug	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:16 PM
HPC/TPC?	Ed in Va	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:30 PM
Re: HPC/TPC?	Clark	Tue Sep 21 2004 05:03 PM
Re: HPC/TPC?	Ed in Va	Tue Sep 21 2004 05:06 PM
Re: HPC/TPC?	LI Phil	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:32 PM
Re: HPC/TPC?	Ed in Va	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:53 PM
T numbers	Bloodstar	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:36 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Fletch	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:21 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Katie	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:40 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Fletch	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:44 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	leetdan	Tue Sep 21 2004 04:17 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	leetdan	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:29 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Domino	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:31 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Domino	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:39 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	LI Phil	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:47 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Domino	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:48 PM
Retirement of names	LI Phil	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:57 PM
Re: Retirement of names	Steve-unplugged	Tue Sep 21 2004 03:06 PM
love this view of ivan	lois	Tue Sep 21 2004 03:28 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Domino	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:25 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?	Fletch	Tue Sep 21 2004 02:13 PM
Re: Ivan's Return	LI Phil	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:40 PM
Re: Ivan's Return	MO STORMSPOTTER	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:29 PM
Med. Storm?	Bloodstar	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:16 PM
Re: Med. Storm?	Domino	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:26 PM
Re: Med. Storm?	clueless	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:57 PM
Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today	Terry Johnson	Tue Sep 21 2004 12:58 PM
Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today	doug	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:21 PM
Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today	tpratch	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:00 PM
Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today	leetdan	Tue Sep 21 2004 12:55 PM
Re: Question for Mike or John C...	MikeC	Tue Sep 21 2004 12:12 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!	leetdan	Tue Sep 21 2004 11:25 AM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!	Frank P	Tue Sep 21 2004 10:22 AM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!	GuppieGrouper	Tue Sep 21 2004 10:37 AM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!	Steve	Tue Sep 21 2004 10:06 AM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!	Clark	Tue Sep 21 2004 12:19 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!	Shalafi	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:14 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!	Ricreig	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:47 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!	Shalafi	Tue Sep 21 2004 01:54 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!	Kent	Tue Sep 21 2004 10:50 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	scottsvb	Tue Sep 21 2004 12:49 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	Hurric	Tue Sep 21 2004 12:46 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	Wxwatcher2	Mon Sep 20 2004 11:22 PM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	DebbiePSL	Mon Sep 20 2004 11:30 PM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Mon Sep 20 2004 11:32 PM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	DebbiePSL	Mon Sep 20 2004 11:35 PM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	52255225	Mon Sep 20 2004 11:29 PM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	52255225	Mon Sep 20 2004 11:30 PM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	ShanaTX	Mon Sep 20 2004 01:07 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy	Storm Cooper	Mon Sep 20 2004 12:33 AM

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